US net migration may turn negative
Analysts warn US net migration could flip negative in 2026 for the first time in decades, a shift that would pressure GDP growth and long‑term fiscal programs like Social Security. The change reflects tighter enforcement and deportations that have slowed nationwide population growth — yet some cities (notably Indianapolis) and parts of Utah are still showing above‑average gains, creating uneven regional impacts. (brookings.edu (nbcnews.com) (axios.com) (deseret.com)
The Census’s Vintage 2025 estimates show net international migration fell from about 2.7 million in 2024 to 1.3 million for the year ending July 1, 2025, and the bureau projects NIM could fall to roughly 321,000 in 2026 if current trends continue. (census.gov ) Brookings’s January 2026 update estimates net migration was between −10,000 and −295,000 in 2025 and warns net flows are likely to remain very low or negative in 2026, estimating reduced immigration will shave roughly $60–$110 billion off consumer spending across 2025–26 and push “breakeven” monthly job growth from 20,000–50,000 in late 2025 toward zero or negative in 2026. (brookings.edu ) The Department of Homeland Security has published milestone releases saying more than 2 million undocumented people left the U.S. since January 2025 and that formal removals exceeded roughly 527,000 that year, while independent watchdogs and TRAC data place total removals for the same period closer to 290,000–300,000, creating large disagreement over the scale of exits. (dhs.gov ) (tracreports.org ) The Congressional Budget Office adjusted its 2026 baseline to reflect lower immigration and told lawmakers that net immigration will be the principal source of U.S. population growth after births fall below deaths starting about 2030, a demographic shift that CBO incorporates into its long‑term budget and Social Security area‑population projections. (cbo.gov ) (cbo.gov ) The population slowdown is geographically uneven: the Indianapolis metro added more than 22,000 residents from July 2024 to July 2025—about twice the national growth rate—while Utah data show international migration supplied roughly 55,000 of that state’s 2023–24 population gain; meanwhile, roughly 1,270 counties lost residents during the same period. (axios.com ) (deseret.com ) (bloomberg.com ) Analysts flag rising uncertainty in these estimates because agencies have changed data releases and transparency since 2025, a point Brookings and the Census both highlight when presenting their ranges and projections for 2025–26. (brookings.edu ) (census.gov )
