Auto rates: soft national landing
After years of hefty increases, national auto rate hikes are projected to slow to under 1% in 2026 — but the picture is uneven: Iowa may see declines near 6%, while New Jersey and Nevada face increases above 10%. Meanwhile repair costs and advanced vehicle tech keep upward pressure on physical‑damage exposures. (openpr.com) (senecainsurance.com)
Insurify projects the average annual full-coverage premium will be about $2,158 in 2026 after a 6% national decline to $2,144 in 2025. (insurify.com) ValuePenguin’s 2026 analysis shows the industry’s recent volatility with national price jumps of 11.57% in 2023, 17.13% in 2024 and 7.56% in 2025 before the 2026 moderation, and reports an average monthly full‑coverage cost of roughly $208 in 2026. (valuepenguin.com) New Jersey’s second phase of P.L.2022, c.87 raised minimum bodily‑injury limits to $35,000 per person and $70,000 per accident effective January 1, 2026, and the state approved rate filings for the majority of carriers ahead of that change. ( ) Nevada filings show roughly 525,000 policyholders saw approved increases at the start of 2026 and the state posted a 13% rise in auto premiums during 2025 that has prompted legislative scrutiny and proposed fixes. ( ) Federal‑level repair‑cost indexes and industry reports record sustained inflationary pressure: the CPI component for motor‑vehicle maintenance and repair climbed roughly 10% from 2023–2024 per RSM, while CCC Intelligent Solutions found EVs averaged 22 parts replaced per repair in 2024 versus 16 for ICE vehicles. ( ) ADAS and calibration work are now meaningful cost drivers: AAA’s ADAS study found ADAS-related work can account for up to 37.6% of a collision repair bill and average ADAS relocation/calibration on a windshield was about $360, while Mitchell‑sourced reporting puts recalibration on about 26% of repairs in 2024 at roughly $500 per recalibration. ( ) Industry underwriting metrics underline the pressure on pricing: Insurance Journal cited industry findings that auto claims and expenses exceeded $1.12 for every $1 of premium in 2022, a dynamic carriers cite when pursuing state filings and sculpting 2026 rate strategies. (insurancejournal.com)
