Bitcoin Conviction Wavers Amid ETF Outflows
Bitcoin's price remains range-bound as holder conviction appears fragile, according to flow metrics analysis. Following a drop from near $126k, macroeconomic concerns and recent ETF outflows have led some banks to adjust forecasts. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 price target for Bitcoin to $100,000.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a combined net outflow of $410.37 million on February 12th, marking the second consecutive day of significant withdrawals. - BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) experienced the largest single outflow at $157.76 million, while Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) followed with $104.13 million in withdrawals. - These outflows coincided with a massive $2.5 billion Bitcoin options expiry on February 13th, which involved 38,000 Bitcoin contracts and added to the market's bearish sentiment. - The recent selling pressure intensified as Bitcoin's price fell below the average price many ETF investors had paid, meaning a growing number of holders are now at a loss. - Despite the outflows, some investors are cautiously buying the dip, with Fidelity's FBTC logging a modest inflow of $3.08 million on February 10th. - Since their launch, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have still generated a total of $54.31 billion in net inflows and hold about 6.34% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. - Broader market sentiment has been impacted by weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data, fueling concerns of a recession and a flight to safety among investors. - Some analysts believe that potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in mid-2026 could provide a tailwind for Bitcoin, as lower borrowing costs have historically pushed investors toward higher-return assets.
