Trump meets Xi in Beijing

U.S.-China diplomacy is back in the room — and this time the agenda is much bigger than tariffs. Donald Trump is due in Beijing on May 14–15 for talks with Xi Jinping, the first face-to-face meeting between the two men since the APEC summit in Busan on October 30, 2025. The gap since then matters because the relationship has gotten more brittle, not less. A meeting that was supposed to focus on trade now has Iran, Taiwan, AI and energy security piled on top. ### What is actually happening this week? Trump is scheduled to visit Beijing for a two-day summit with Xi. This trip had originally been set for March 31, but it was pushed back after the U.S. and Israel struck Iran and the regional crisis took over the calendar. So this is not just a routine state visit. It is a rescheduled summit arriving in a much more dangerous moment. (cfr.org) ### Why does the date shift matter? Because the delay changed the whole purpose of the meeting. In March, the main question was whether Washington and Beijing could steady trade ties after months of tariff escalation and legal fights over Trump’s tariff tools. By mid-May, that trade problem is still there, but now it sits inside a wider crisis involving Gulf shipping, oil prices and China’s ties with Iran. (cfr.org) ### Why is Iran suddenly central? China has real leverage here. It is a major buyer of Iranian oil, and it wants shipping through the Strait of Hormuz restored quickly because that waterway is a chokepoint for global energy flows. Trump, meanwhile, is dealing with a war that threatens to overshadow everything else on the trip. That means Beijing can present itself as both a necessary economic partner and a geopolitical broker at the same time. (cfr.org) ### Where do tariffs fit now? They are still the most immediate business issue, but they may not be the main event. Analysts going into the summit have framed the tariff truce as fragile, with companies and markets looking for any sign that both sides will keep talking instead of restarting escalation. The catch is that even if the two governments want calm, the trade fight is now tangled up with national security questions that are much harder to bargain away. (cnbc.com) ### Why do rare earths keep coming up? Because this is one of China’s clearest pressure points. Rare earths and other critical minerals sit deep in the supply chains for electronics, defense systems and advanced manufacturing. A tariff dispute hurts margins. A minerals squeeze hits production itself. That is why any understanding that keeps those supplies flowing matters more than it might sound at first glance. (cnbc.com) ### What about Taiwan and AI? Those are the harder, longer-term fights. Taiwan remains the most dangerous military flashpoint in the relationship, and AI has become a new arena for export controls, chip restrictions and safety talks that neither side fully trusts. In other words, even a smooth summit would not solve the structural rivalry. It would just keep the floor from dropping out. (cnbc.com) ### Why do people say China has the upper hand? Basically, because Beijing comes into this meeting with more usable leverage than it had before. China can affect minerals, manufacturing inputs, and parts of the Iran energy equation all at once. CFR’s roundup of expert views makes the same point in different ways — the balance has shifted since the leaders last met, and Xi can negotiate from a stronger position than he did in late 2025. (cnbc.com) ### So what should readers watch for? Watch for small signals, not a grand bargain. If the summit produces language on keeping the tariff truce alive, maintaining rare-earth flows, or coordinating even narrowly on Iran, markets will treat that as a win. If the meeting gets swallowed by Taiwan threats, AI deadlock or Hormuz instability, then this trip will look less like a reset and more like proof that U.S.-China tensions now spill across every major fault line at once. (cfr.org) (cnbc.com)