Chief Architect Warns on Large-Scale Building Sites

- The Dutch government aims to build 900,000 new homes by 2030 to address the current housing shortage, with a target of 100,000 homes per year. However, construction has been lagging, with expectations for 2023 and 2024 not exceeding 70,000 homes annually. This shortfall is attributed to several factors, including stringent nitrogen regulations, grid congestion, slow permitting procedures, and rising construction costs. - In September 2025, the government designated 127 locations for large-scale housing development, aiming to realize 1.65 million new homes by 2050. This follows the identification of 17 major housing development areas, known as NOVEX locations, where 400,000 homes are planned. However, the government has indicated it will not provide new funding for infrastructure in some of the more recently added areas, prioritizing existing commitments. - The debate between greenfield development and densification is a central theme in Dutch spatial planning. The National Environment and Planning Strategy (NOVI) urges that new homes be built within existing urban structures or near transport hubs. Research indicates that between 2012 and 2017, 69% of new residential developments occurred in inner-urban locations, a figure that has been increasing. - Chief Government Architect Francesco Veenstra advocates for quality over quantity, emphasizing the need to look towards the 22nd century when planning new housing. He has pointed out that there is space for 800,000 to 1 million new homes through densification in cities and villages, such as in the widely-spaced residential areas from the 1950s and 60s, without necessarily building high-rise towers. - The discussion around large-scale greenfield developments is reminiscent of the "Vierde Nota Ruimtelijke Ordening Extra" (VINEX) policy from 1991. This policy also designated large-scale housing locations at the edges of cities to accommodate population growth and is now a subject of evaluation and debate regarding its successes and failures. - Regulatory and environmental challenges significantly impede housing construction. The 2019 court ruling on nitrogen emissions has led to permitting paralysis, putting nearly 244,000 housing units at risk of delay or cancellation. The new Environmental and Planning Act (Omgevingswet), effective in 2024, consolidates environmental laws and adds layers of complexity to permit applications. - Innovative and alternative housing solutions are being explored to meet the high demand. These include a "Straatje Erbij" (One Extra Street) concept, which could add 95,000 homes by extending existing villages and cities. Other strategies involve adding floors to existing buildings ('optoppen'), which could create up to 20,000 new homes nationally, and developing "flexcities" with prefabricated mobile homes. - While densification is a key strategy, studies show it can lead to higher housing costs, displacing lower-income residents. Research on projects in the Utrecht region confirms that households in densification projects tend to have significantly higher incomes than their neighbors. Public land ownership combined with inclusionary zoning has been identified as essential for ensuring affordability in these new developments.