Moderation is reshaping demand
U.S. consumers are drinking more selectively, shifting toward low‑ or no‑alcohol and functional drinks, and investors are flagging GLP‑1 treatments as a structural pressure on alcohol sales (foodnavigator-usa.com) (proactiveinvestors.co.uk). European reporting also expects no‑alcohol wine production to surge next year, which suggests guests who hesitate may want a quality experience without the alcohol content (en.ilsole24ore.com) (vinetur.com).
Americans are drinking more selectively, and the fastest growth is moving toward low-, no- and functional beverages rather than traditional alcohol. (foodnavigator-usa.com) FoodNavigator-USA reported on April 14 that younger consumers are pushing “controlled indulgence,” with demand shifting toward tetrahydrocannabinol drinks, non-alcoholic options and beverages marketed with adaptogens and other wellness claims. Penn State Extension, citing Gallup’s 2025 survey, said 54% of U.S. adults said they use alcohol, down 4 points from 2024 and 8 points from 2023. (foodnavigator-usa.com) (extension.psu.edu) The same Penn State summary said the mean number of drinks consumed in the past seven days fell to 2.8 in 2025, from 3.8 in 2024 and 4.0 in 2023. That points to moderation showing up not just in who drinks, but in how much drinkers report consuming. (extension.psu.edu) Investors are now treating that shift as a long-term demand issue for alcohol producers. UBS said North American beverage alcohol growth could average 1.3% a year from 2025 to 2035, about 200 to 300 basis points below pre-Covid levels, with volumes in structural decline. (proactiveinvestors.com.au) UBS also said its Evidence Lab survey of almost 10,000 consumers found only 32% of Generation Z drink alcohol weekly, versus roughly 45% for older cohorts. Nearly half of users of glucagon-like peptide-1 medicines, a class of weight-loss and diabetes drugs, said they now drink less alcohol. (proactiveinvestors.com.au) In Europe, producers are building around the same behavior with wine that keeps the ritual but removes the alcohol. Data presented at Vinitaly by the Unione Italiana Vini-Vinitaly Observatory showed Italian wineries expect no-alcohol wine production to rise 90% in 2026. (vinetur.com) That Italian survey said 91% of those sales are expected to go to export markets, and 77% through retail. It also said sales in Germany, the United Kingdom and the United States topped €1.2 billion in 2025, totaling 160 million bottles. (vinetur.com) The supply response is still running into regulation. Il Sole 24 Ore reported on April 14 that, despite an interministerial decree at the end of December 2025 allowing partially and totally dealcoholized wine production in Italy, no winery was yet active because producers still needed authorization through local Customs Agency offices. (en.ilsole24ore.com) The split in the market is getting clearer: some consumers still want alcohol, but in smaller amounts and at fewer occasions, while others want the same social format in a bottle with none. For drinks companies, that means the growth aisle increasingly sits next to the old one, not inside it. (foodnavigator-usa.com) (proactiveinvestors.com.au)
