One Nation would become opposition

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is being projected by new polling to overtake Australia’s Liberal-National Coalition and become the federal opposition if an election were held now. ABC reported on May 23 that RedBridge Group and Ascent Research polling of more than 6,000 voters found One Nation could win dozens of House seats and wipe out the Nationals entirely. Nine News, citing the same pollsters, said Labor would be returned to government, the Liberals would be reduced to 12 seats, the Nationals to none, and One Nation would win 53 seats. The numbers amount to the clearest published seat-by-seat warning yet for the Coalition since the 2025 federal election. ABC said the poll put One Nation on course to take seats not only from the Coalition but also from Labor. Nine said the Coalition would be wiped out in four states, including Queensland and South Australia. ### How big is the projected shift? (abc.net.au) Nine’s projection of 53 seats would make One Nation the official opposition in the House of Representatives. ABC’s version of the same polling said Pauline Hanson’s party could win as many as 59 seats, enough to leapfrog the Liberals and leave the Nationals without representation. More than 6,000 voters were surveyed in the RedBridge Group and Ascent Research poll cited by ABC. (abc.net.au) The broadcaster said the results pointed to One Nation becoming the opposition if current voting intentions were replicated at an election. ### Which parties are losing ground? The Liberals are the main losers in both reports. Nine said the party would be cut to 12 seats, while the Nationals would fall to zero. (abc.net.au) ABC said the Coalition would be nearly wiped out, with One Nation depleting Liberal support and completely wiping out the National Party on the poll’s numbers. Queensland featured heavily in the projected losses. The New Daily, also reporting the poll, said the Coalition would not retain a single seat in Queensland or Western Australia and would have no seats in South Australia or Tasmania, while One Nation’s biggest surge would be in Queensland, where it could win up to 21 seats. (abc.net.au) ### What are party figures saying publicly? Barnaby Joyce, now a One Nation MP, told ABC it was “hubristic and way, way, way ahead of ourselves” to assume too much about the next election from the polling alone. He said the party instead faced “an incredible responsibility” from voters, according to ABC’s report. Angus Taylor, the Liberal leader, urged supporters to mobilise after the poll, ABC reported. (thenewdaily.com.au) The broadcaster said Taylor warned party faithful as the numbers showed the Liberals at risk of being nearly wiped out by One Nation. ### Why are analysts linking the rise to voter anger? AAP copy carried by regional outlets said a “huge amount of grievance” was helping drive One Nation’s growth. (abc.net.au) Those reports said a senior Liberal figure conceded that a decade of flawed Coalition policies had helped fuel the party’s rise. ABC reported earlier this month that an ANU poll conducted from March 11 to March 26 found One Nation’s support may be more durable than a short-lived protest vote. (abc.net.au) That survey of 3,662 adults was the first ANUpoll to ask specifically about One Nation, ABC said. ### What happens next? The next federal election is not due until 2028 at the latest, and the current polling is a snapshot rather than a result. (msn.com) For now, the immediate test is whether later national polls keep showing One Nation ahead of the Coalition and whether Liberal and National figures can stop further defections in Queensland, South Australia and other regional seats flagged in the latest projections. (citynews.com.au) (abc.net.au)