Guy Carpenter predicts 90% suppressed season
- The National Hurricane Center says no tropical cyclone formation is expected now in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf, easing immediate storm alerts. - Reinsurance firm Guy Carpenter assigns a 90% probability that El Niño will suppress the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, though warmer Gulf waters could still fuel rapid intensification. - Analysts warn seasonal averages may fall while event severity and network fragility still pose concentrated supply‑chain risk for island operators. (insurancebusinessmag.com)
A calm Atlantic map on May 19 does not equal a low-risk season. The National Hurricane Center said no tropical cyclone formation is expected over the next seven days in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of America, and its Atlantic outlook showed no active disturbances. (nhc.noaa.gov) Guy Carpenter’s seasonal view is softer than the last two years, but it is not a clean all-clear. In its 2026 North Atlantic hurricane season outlook, the reinsurance broker said a strong El Niño is forecast to develop this summer and cited NOAA Climate Prediction Center guidance showing a 90% chance of El Niño conditions during the August-to-October peak. El Niño typically raises Atlantic wind shear, which tends to reduce storm formation and cap basin-wide activity. (guycarp.com) That 90% figure is about the odds of El Niño conditions during peak season, not a guarantee that 90% of storms disappear. Guy Carpenter’s argument is that El Niño tilts the background environment toward a less active Atlantic season than average, especially when compared with recent hyperactive years. Insurance Business, citing the Guy Carpenter outlook, described the setup as likely to suppress storm formation across the basin during the peak months. (insurancebusinessmag.com) The catch in the forecast is geography and intensity. Guy Carpenter said warmer waters in the Gulf could complicate the outlook, because very warm sea-surface temperatures can still support rapid intensification even in a season with fewer total storms. That means seasonal storm counts and loss severity can diverge: a quieter basin can still produce a small number of very damaging events. (insurancebusinessmag.com) NOAA’s ENSO guidance supports the broad climate setup but leaves uncertainty around timing and strength. The Climate Prediction Center said on May 14 that El Niño is likely to emerge soon, with an 82% chance in May-to-July 2026 and a 96% chance in December 2026-to-February 2027. For hurricane planning, that matters because the Atlantic season runs from June 1 to November 30, and the strongest suppressive effect would matter most if El Niño is established by the late-summer peak. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) For Caribbean operators, the operational lesson is narrower than the headline. Near-term alerts are low right now, but island supply chains remain exposed to single-event disruption because ports, roads, power, telecoms and inter-island freight links can fail in clusters during one fast-strengthening storm. That is an inference from the forecast mix — lower expected basin activity plus persistent warm-water intensity risk — rather than a direct quote from regulators. (insurancebusinessmag.com) So the practical read is: watch two clocks at once. The short clock is the NHC’s rolling seven-day outlook, which is quiet today. The seasonal clock is the El Niño transition, which points to fewer Atlantic storms overall but does not remove the need to plan for a concentrated Gulf or Caribbean hit if one storm finds unusually warm water. (nhc.noaa.gov)
