Spring housing data is the big test
This week’s March housing releases are being treated as the key test of whether the market is returning to a normal spring lift or staying unusually cautious. Analysts say the outcomes — stronger sales, rising listings with lagging sales, or broad paralysis — will each imply very different demand dynamics for the rest of 2026. (canadianmortgagetrends.com)
Canada’s spring housing market faces its first real test this week, with March sales and construction data due on April 16 and April 17. (crea.ca) (cmhc-schl.gc.ca) The Canadian Real Estate Association is scheduled to publish March resale figures on Thursday, April 16, and the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation is due to release March housing starts on Friday, April 17. February resale activity was weak: 30,244 homes sold nationally, down 1.3 per cent from January on a seasonally adjusted basis and down 8.1 per cent from February 2025. (crea.ca 1) (crea.ca 2) The construction side is sending mixed signals. Statistics Canada said residential building permits rose by $135.6 million, or 1.7 per cent, to $8.1 billion in February, while total permits fell 8.4 per cent to $12.1 billion because non-residential intentions dropped. (statcan.gc.ca) March matters because Canada’s housing market usually gets its biggest seasonal lift in spring, and 2026 opened without that normal burst. Canadian Mortgage Trends said analysts are watching for three different outcomes: stronger sales, more listings without matching demand, or a market that stays largely frozen. (canadianmortgagetrends.com) The backdrop is a market that was supposed to recover this year but has stayed cautious. In its January forecast, the Canadian Real Estate Association said 494,512 homes would change hands in 2026, up 5.1 per cent from 2025, with British Columbia and Ontario expected to lead the rebound. (crea.ca) Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation has been more restrained. Its February 10 outlook said home sales in 2026 would stay below historical averages, new construction would decline through 2028, and condominium starts would be especially weak as builders face high costs, weaker demand and more unsold homes. (cmhc-schl.gc.ca 1) (cmhc-schl.gc.ca 2) Interest rates are no longer falling fast enough to do the work on their own. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25 per cent on March 18, and Governor Tiff Macklem said the labour market was soft, unemployment had risen to 6.7 per cent in February, and housing was weak. (bankofcanada.ca 1) (bankofcanada.ca 2) Local March data already show the country pulling in different directions. In the Greater Toronto Area, home sales rose 1.7 per cent from a year earlier to 5,039, new listings fell 16.7 per cent to 14,442, and the benchmark price was down 7.4 per cent from March 2025. (trreb.ca) If the national March numbers echo Toronto, the spring market could look tighter than it did in winter. If they look more like February’s national slowdown, 2026 may keep looking less like a rebound and more like a wait-and-see year. (trreb.ca) (crea.ca)
