S&P sinks to lows

The S&P 500 closed at 6,506.48 on March 20 after a 1.51% intraday drop, leaving the benchmark down roughly 1.9% for the week. (statmuse.com braviasfinancial.com ) Technically, the index slipped below its 200‑day moving average, ending a long streak above that trendline and adding to traders’ signals of short‑term market stress. (financialcontent.com ) Energy costs have surged: Brent crude settled near $112.19 on March 20 while U.S. benchmark crude traded around $98, moves that have pushed year‑over‑year oil benchmarks up by roughly 40–55%. (tradingeconomics.com tradingeconomics.com ) Supply disruptions underpinned the spike — Iraq declared force majeure on foreign‑operated oilfields after Strait of Hormuz navigation was disrupted, and U.S. officials signaled plans to send thousands of additional Marines and sailors to the region. (usnews.com usnews.com ) JPMorgan strategists, led by Fabio Bassi, told clients the geopolitical shock makes upside for risk assets “more constrained,” advised downside hedges and estimated that a sustained ~$110 oil environment could trim S&P‑500 consensus EPS by about 2–5%. (bloomberg.com ) UBS’s note, led by David Lefkowitz, struck a different tone — projecting mid‑year and year‑end scenario targets around the low‑ to mid‑7,000s and forecasting roughly $310 of S&P earnings for 2026 while treating a short energy disruption as its base case. (finance.yahoo.com ) FactSet’s March Earnings Insight shows the Q1 estimate has edged down since December but would still extend the index’s run of double‑digit quarterly earnings growth if realized; the report also counts about 50 S&P issuers with negative EPS guidance versus roughly 57 with positive guidance and places the forward 12‑month P/E at about 20.3. (factset.com )