Tariff Uncertainty Hits Lenders

Tariff uncertainty is starting to change how middle-market loans get priced, as lenders revisit cost, inflation and cash-flow assumptions for borrowers exposed to imports. (abfjournal.com) ABF Journal reported on April 13 that middle-market lenders spent the week ending April 11 recalibrating risk as energy-driven inflation picked up, business development company liquidity came under pressure and bankruptcy filings rose. The publication said the tariff regime is creating “rolling cost uncertainty” for borrowers. (abfjournal.com) At the same time, many importers that expected tariff refunds are still waiting. Politico reported on April 13 that U.S. Customs and Border Protection plans to begin processing its first batch of refunds on April 20, but said most importers will not be eligible in that first wave and checks are not expected immediately. (politico.com) For borrowers, that means money that might have been counted as near-term liquidity is still tied up. For lenders, it means underwriting now has to account for both higher input costs and uncertainty over when, or whether, tariff cash comes back. (politico.com, abfjournal.com) The refund dispute traces back to tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, which the Supreme Court struck down last month, opening the door to large repayment claims from importers. Politico reported in March that the administration was facing thousands of lawsuits as it tried to slow the refund process. (politico.com) U.S. Customs and Border Protection told the Court of International Trade in a March 12 filing that it was building new Automated Commercial Environment functionality to automate and centralize IEEPA tariff refund claims. KPMG said that process depends on new system features rather than immediate manual payouts. (kpmg.com) An April 10 Customs systems bulletin described a new Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries portal, known as CAPE, for Phase 1 refund claims in the Automated Commercial Environment. Ernst & Young said the rollout is scheduled for April 20, 2026. (ey.com) Credit analysts have been warning that tariff policy is feeding broader financing stress, not just trade compliance headaches. S&P Global said on April 10 that policy uncertainty remains a key risk to the global credit outlook and a potential trigger for market volatility. (spglobal.com) Private debt investors have been making the same adjustment for months. Private Debt Investor reported that lenders were stepping back from financing some tariff-exposed industries and expected pricing and terms to harden for the most exposed borrowers. (privatedebtinvestor.com) The immediate question is no longer just what tariff rate applies. It is whether lenders and borrowers can model costs, collateral values and liquidity with enough confidence to close deals before the refund machinery catches up. (abfjournal.com, politico.com)