Packaged Food Market to Exceed $8T

- India, the world's largest rice exporter, lifted its final export ban on 100% broken rice in early March 2025, after a series of restrictions on non-basmati rice that began in 2022 caused global prices to surge. This full return to the market is expected to increase India's exports by 10-15% in the 2025-26 marketing year, putting downward pressure on global prices. - In contrast, a key competitor, Vietnam, plans to strategically reduce its total rice exports from approximately 7 million tons in 2026 to 4 million tons by 2030. This move is part of a national strategy to shift focus from volume to improving quality and increasing the value of its rice on the global market. - A new U.S.-Japan trade agreement finalized in July 2025 threatens to cut Thailand's tariff-free rice quota to Japan from 300,000 tonnes to less than 100,000 tonnes. Japan reportedly made this concession to the U.S. in exchange for reduced tariffs on its industrial goods, such as automobiles. - The global organic rice market is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 7%, driven by rising consumer demand for healthier and sustainably sourced food. In Europe, demand is specifically rising for premium, organic, and specialty rice varieties like Basmati and Jasmine. - The Thai Baht to Euro (THB/EUR) exchange rate is forecast to fluctuate throughout 2026, with various analysts predicting year-end rates between approximately €0.025 and €0.028. - To sell into the European Union, exporters must comply with the General Food Law Regulation (EC) No. 178/2002, which mandates food traceability at all stages of production, processing, and distribution to allow for rapid withdrawal of unsafe products. The EU is also transitioning toward digital customs documents for imports. - To bolster regional trade, Thailand and Singapore signed a memorandum of cooperation in November 2025 to ensure a stable rice supply for Singapore and expand market opportunities for Thai producers. Further agreements were signed in March 2025 to increase Singapore's import limits for Jasmine and other rice varieties.