US‑Iran tensions rise

U.S.-Iran tensions sharpened again this week around the Strait of Hormuz, after ship attacks, a U.S. seizure of an Iranian-flagged vessel and stalled talks raised new fears over Gulf shipping. (apnews.com) On April 20, ABC News reported that Iran was accused of attacking two Indian-flagged vessels, while U.S. Marines fired on and seized an Iranian-flagged ship after a weekend of confrontations in and near the strait. ABC also reported that Iran said it would not send negotiators to Pakistan for a second round of talks with U.S. officials. (abcnews.com) CNBC reported the two-week ceasefire was due to expire on Tuesday, April 21, and that West Texas Intermediate crude jumped more than 6% to about $89 a barrel early Monday while Brent rose 5.6% to $95.50. Shipping traffic, which had briefly picked up after Iran said on April 17 that commercial transit could resume, stalled again after vessels came under fire. (cnbc.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow sea lane between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the open ocean. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said 20.9 million barrels a day moved through it in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and one-quarter of maritime oil trade. (eia.gov) The same route also carries gas. The Energy Information Administration said about 20% of global liquefied natural gas trade passed through Hormuz in 2024, much of it from Qatar, which is why even short disruptions can move fuel prices and shipping insurance costs well beyond the Gulf. (eia.gov) The current standoff sits on top of a wider regional war that the International Energy Agency said began on February 28, 2026 and had already cut flows through Hormuz to a trickle by March. In April, the agency said global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels a day in March, calling it the largest disruption in the market’s history. (iea.org) Washington has also tightened its economic campaign. A State Department feed item published this week said the United States was acting to limit Iran’s revenue as Tehran attempted to “hold the Strait of Hormuz hostage,” alongside new sanctions tied to oil-smuggling networks. (state.gov) Oman remains central because it sits on the southern side of the strait and hosts expanded U.S. access to the ports of Salalah and Duqm under a 2019 framework agreement. The State Department says the United States and Oman work together to protect freedom of navigation in Hormuz and nearby waters. (state.gov) What happens next depends on whether Washington and Tehran revive talks after the April 21 ceasefire deadline and whether commercial ships start moving again without coming under fire. Until that changes, the world’s busiest oil chokepoint is likely to keep setting the tone for energy markets and naval deployments in the Gulf. (cnbc.com)