GOP's 2026 Midterm Risk May Be Gender Gap

- The gender gap in voting has been a consistent feature of U.S. presidential elections since 1980, with women favoring Democratic candidates and men favoring Republican candidates. This gap has ranged from 4 to 11 percentage points in presidential contests. - In the 2022 midterm elections, the gender gap was pronounced among young voters, with 72% of young women voting for a Democrat compared to 54% of young men. However, Republicans saw increased support from women compared to the 2018 midterms, with 48% of women voters casting ballots for GOP candidates in 2022, up from 40% in 2018. - Women have consistently voted at higher rates than men in every presidential election since 1980, and the number of female voters has surpassed male voters in every presidential election since 1964. - While women overall lean Democratic, white women have favored the Republican candidate in most presidential elections over the last 72 years, with exceptions in 1964 and 1996. In 2024, a majority of white women (53%) voted for Donald Trump. - Suburban women, once a Republican stronghold, have been shifting toward the Democratic party. In 2024, a poll found that 47% of suburban women identify as Democrats, compared to 35% who identify as Republicans. - Key issues influencing women voters include the economy, threats to democracy, immigration, and abortion. For women under 30, abortion was the single most important issue in the 2024 election cycle. - The Republican party has made efforts to recruit more female candidates to counter the narrative that the party is anti-woman. Following the 2022 midterms, a record 12 women were serving as state governors. - The gender gap is not monolithic and intersects with other demographics like age and race. For example, the gap is particularly large among voters aged 18-44, while men tend to have higher turnout rates than women among voters aged 65 and up.