Freight market tightens
Freight conditions have worsened sharply for shippers over the last month, with indices signaling faster deterioration and tighter capacity than traders expected. ( ) Spot and contract pricing are being reinforced by elevated fuel and shrinking slack — DAT flagged extreme stress between prices and capacity while TD Cowen/AFS and other indexes showed multi‑year highs for truckload, LTL and parcel rates. ( )
Shipping freight by truck got harder for shippers in March and early April as rates climbed, diesel surged, and available trucks tightened. (trucknews.com) FTR said its Shippers Conditions Index fell to -11.9 in February, the weakest reading since March 2022, and warned the index could drop to a record low if higher fuel costs sideline more capacity. (ftrintel.com, thetrucker.com) DAT Freight and Analytics said March truckload spot and contract rates reached their highest levels in more than two years, while dry van volumes rose 12%, refrigerated volumes rose 7%, and flatbed volumes rose 18% from February. (trucknews.com) The pressure is not limited to one lane or one pricing model. AFS Logistics and TD Cowen said their second-quarter 2026 index points to the highest truckload pricing since the fourth quarter of 2022, a new peak for less-than-truckload pricing, and record parcel pricing. (afs.net, trucknews.com) Diesel is a direct cost in trucking, and fuel surcharges move with it like a variable fee on top of the linehaul rate. FTR said the market had already been tightening before the fuel spike, which means rising diesel is adding to an existing squeeze instead of acting alone. (thetrucker.com, ftrintel.com) Capacity is the number of trucks willing and able to haul freight at a given price, and shippers usually gain leverage when too many trucks chase too few loads. DAT said March brought higher volumes across equipment types, while FTR said tighter capacity is now reinforcing the fuel-driven jump in rates. (trucknews.com, ftrintel.com) That shift marks a break from much of 2023 and 2024, when excess trucking capacity kept pricing soft and gave shippers more room to negotiate. FTR now says the freight environment is turning back toward carriers faster than the monthly data alone may show. (ftrintel.com, ftrintel.com) AFS Chief Executive Officer Andy Dyer said fuel-driven price increases often outlast the underlying spike in diesel, because carriers reset surcharge tables and defend margins once the market tightens. DAT said its rate data comes from a database of actual freight payments and load-board activity, which is why traders watch it for early signs of stress. (trucknews.com, dat.com) The next test is whether diesel eases before tighter capacity becomes entrenched in contract bids and routing guides. If it does not, the market that looked manageable in February could look much more expensive by late spring. (thetrucker.com, afs.net)
