Hormuz traffic grinds to halt

Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell back to a near standstill on April 20 after Iran fired apparent warning shots at vessels and U.S. forces seized an Iranian cargo ship. (usnews.com) Reuters, citing ship-tracking data, reported that just one ship exited the Gulf and two entered through the strait in a 12-hour window on Monday. Normal traffic is about 130 vessels a day. (usnews.com) (thestar.com.my) The latest disruption followed a brief, confused reopening over the weekend. It ended after the first U.S. seizure of an Iranian vessel in the current crisis and reports that a CMA CGM container ship came under fire. (nytimes.com) (sahmcapital.com) Traffic had already collapsed earlier in the month. On April 16, CNBC reported that only two vessels were seen transiting the waterway as the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports entered its fourth day. (cnbc.com) U.S. Central Command said 14 vessels had reversed course in the first 72 hours of the blockade rather than test it. Bloomberg reported the figure on April 16, and CNBC cited the same military count. (bloomberg.com) (cnbc.com) The strait matters because it is the narrow sea lane between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The International Energy Agency says about 20 million barrels a day of oil pass through it, equal to roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade. (iea.org) The U.S. Energy Information Administration uses a slightly different benchmark: 21 million barrels a day in 2022, or about 21% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Both measures point to the same risk — a disruption there can hit crude, fuel and shipping markets at once. (eia.gov) (iea.org) The disruption is not just about oil tankers. The International Energy Agency says about 93% of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas exports and 96% of the United Arab Emirates’ liquefied natural gas exports also transit Hormuz. (iea.org) Even when Iran signaled on April 8 that ships could pass through coordination with its armed forces, traffic barely recovered. ABC analysis cited by RNZ found only seven ships crossed in the next 24 hours, compared with more than 130 a day before the war. (rnz.co.nz) That helps explain why insurers and shipowners have stayed cautious after each claimed reopening. The waterway may be open on paper, but owners are still weighing warning shots, vessel seizures and the chance of being ordered to turn back. (sahmcapital.com) (bloomberg.com) For now, the most concrete measure is still the ship count: three crossings in 12 hours on April 20 in one of the world’s busiest energy chokepoints. Until that number rises, Hormuz is functioning more like a controlled military corridor than a normal trade route. (usnews.com) (iea.org)