Tariff uncertainty persists

American companies are planning for tariffs to last, even as the United States prepares to start refunding some duties the Supreme Court struck down. (fortune.com) (yahoo.com) Fortune reported that 86% of 633 United States executives in a PricewaterhouseCoopers survey said they now treat tariffs as a permanent business condition rather than a temporary policy swing. PricewaterhouseCoopers separately said one in five chief executives globally see a high or very high risk of significant financial loss from tariffs in the next 12 months. (fortune.com) (pwc.com) On April 14, Reuters reported that United States Customs and Border Protection plans to launch the first phase of its refund system, called CAPE, on April 20. The system is meant to return tariff payments after the Supreme Court ruled in February that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. (yahoo.com) (money.usnews.com) Court filings cited by Reuters said importers paid $166 billion in the tariffs at issue, and more than 330,000 importers paid those duties on 53 million shipments. As of April 9, 56,497 importers had completed the steps needed to receive electronic refunds totaling $127 billion. (money.usnews.com) (yahoo.com) The two developments point in opposite directions at once. One is backward-looking, because companies are trying to recover money from tariffs a court voided; the other is forward-looking, because executives are still building budgets, prices, and supply chains around the idea that tariffs will remain part of United States trade policy. (fortune.com) (pwc.com) (money.usnews.com) That expectation reflects the last several years of policy. Tariffs imposed during Trump’s first term were not broadly dismantled under President Joe Biden, and Trump returned to office in 2025 with tariffs again at the center of his trade agenda, reinforcing the view inside boardrooms that import taxes can survive changes in administration. (fortune.com) (morningstar.com) Customs and Border Protection said CAPE will start with recently imported goods and straightforward claims, then expand in later phases. The agency also told the court that a subset of entries covering about $2.9 billion in tariffs may still need manual processing, which would add work for trade enforcement staff. (yahoo.com) (money.usnews.com) Some smaller importers have worried that the cost of pursuing refunds could outweigh the benefit, especially for older or more complex entries. Fortune reported this week that some cash-strapped companies have even used expected tariff refunds as collateral for loans while they wait for money to come back. (fortune.com) (yahoo.com) April 20 is the next concrete date, but it does not settle the larger question companies are pricing for. The court erased one set of tariffs; the survey suggests many executives no longer believe tariffs themselves are going away. (yahoo.com) (fortune.com)