Pokemon GO's New Season Nerfs Shinies?

Niantic has not confirmed any changes to shiny odds, sticking to their policy of not discussing specific rates. However, the Pokémon GO community is buzzing with speculation that the odds of finding wild shiny Pokémon have been stealthily reduced. The perceived nerf coincides with the "Memories in Motion" season, which introduced shiny evolved Pokémon in the wild and boosted shiny rates for Pokémon in raids and eggs. This season began on March 3rd, 2026. Player-sourced data suggests a "flattening" of shiny rates, meaning that many Pokémon that previously had boosted shiny rates in the wild now share the base rate of 1/512. Previously, some uncommon species had a "permaboost" to 1/64. This change primarily affects wild encounters, as shiny rates in Raids and Eggs were supposedly increased. Some players feel this change devalues the experience for those who don't spend money on raids and incubators. The Silph Road, a popular Pokémon GO community on Reddit, has a vast thread dedicated to analyzing these changes. User ch33psh33p suggests the changes benefit "junk Pokémon in eggs and raids" but nerfs the odds for rarer species in the wild. Some players have noted that Pokémon Go Safari Zone in Yokosuka, Japan and other events may have errors in the shiny rates. Previously, shiny rates were tied to specific Pokémon species, with base rates around 1/500. Certain species, like Shinx and Gible, had medium rates of 1/125, while others had permaboosted rates of 1/64. Community Days historically feature a rate of approximately 1/25. Niantic has faced similar community concerns in the past, such as in June 2023 when Remote Raid shiny rates were allegedly nerfed due to a "technical issue".