CSU's early hurricane call

Colorado State University’s first 2026 Atlantic outlook calls for a slightly quieter hurricane season than the long-term average, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes. (tropical.colostate.edu) The forecast was released April 9 by Colorado State University’s Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team, which has issued seasonal Atlantic forecasts since 1984. The team plans updates on June 10, July 8 and August 5. (tropical.colostate.edu) Colorado State University said current weak La Niña conditions are likely to flip to El Niño in the next few months, and possibly to a moderate or strong El Niño by the peak of the season. El Niño tends to increase upper-level winds over the Atlantic, which can disrupt storm formation. (tropical.colostate.edu) The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, and most tropical storms and hurricanes form from August through October. That means the climate pattern expected later this summer matters more than conditions in April. (cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) By the current 1991-2020 climate averages, an Atlantic season typically produces 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes. Colorado State University’s April forecast lands just below each of those benchmarks. (noaa.gov) Colorado State University said its early April outlook is the earliest seasonal forecast it issues and has only modest long-range skill in hindcasts. The researchers said forecast skill improves as the season gets closer, which is why later updates carry more weight. (tropical.colostate.edu) The researchers compared 2026 with 2006, 2009, 2015 and 2023, years when El Niño or near-El Niño conditions helped limit Atlantic activity. Those analog years are not exact templates, but they give forecasters a way to estimate how the atmosphere may behave if the Pacific warms as expected. (tropical.colostate.edu) Even with a below-average forecast, the National Hurricane Center notes that storms can form outside the official season dates and that one landfall can define a year for coastal communities. Seasonal outlooks describe basin-wide activity, not where any storm will go. (nhc.noaa.gov) The next big checkpoint is June 10, when Colorado State University updates its numbers with two more months of ocean and atmosphere data in hand. Until then, the April call is an early signal that 2026 may be less active than recent busy seasons, not a promise of a quiet coast. (tropical.colostate.edu)