U.S. import cargo lags

The National Retail Federation said on May 8 that import volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to remain below 2025 levels into early fall, extending a slowdown that has run through the first months of 2026. The forecast came in the latest Global Port Tracker report produced with Hackett Associates. March imports totaled 2.16 million TEU, the latest final reading, while April was estimated at 2.13 million TEU. May and June are expected to show year-over-year gains, but NRF said those comparisons are distorted by a sharp drop after tariffs announced in April 2025. ### Why are May and June rising if retailers are still cautious? Jonathan Gold, NRF's vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the near-term increase is a base effect rather than a rebound in ordering. “The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” Gold said. May is forecast at 2.17 million TEU, up 11.1% from a year earlier, and June is seen at 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2%, according to the May 8 report. NRF said those gains would leave first-half 2026 imports at 12.59 million TEU, up 0.5% from the same period of 2025. ### What do the later summer numbers show? (nrf.com) July is forecast at 2.2 million TEU, down 7.8% from a year earlier, August at 2.19 million TEU, down 5.5%, and September at 2.08 million TEU, down 1.3%, the report said. Those figures point to weaker inbound cargo through the period when retailers would typically be positioning inventories for late summer and early autumn selling. (nrf.com) March's 2.16 million TEU reading was up 0.6% from a year earlier and 13.6% above February, when Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia and bad weather delayed cargo arrivals at some U.S. ports. April's preliminary estimate of 2.13 million TEU would be down 3.6% year over year. ### Who is saying retailers are holding back? (nrf.com) Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said retailers have been cautious about building inventories amid broader uncertainty. “Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening,” Hackett said. “Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.” (nrf.com) Just Style, which reported the May 15 story, linked that caution to restrained inbound cargo despite continued consumer demand. Its report cited the same Global Port Tracker data and Hackett's comments on weakening forward demand and stalling restocking. ### What pressures are NRF and Hackett pointing to? NRF said inflation, falling consumer confidence and uncertainty tied to the conflict in Iran are contributing to the lower-import trend. (nrf.com) Gold said on May 8 that “the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue” under those conditions. (just-style.com) An April 8 NRF release said tariffs and trade policy uncertainty were already putting downward pressure on imports, while higher fuel costs linked to disruptions around the Middle East were adding costs for shippers. Gold said then that retailers were monitoring the situation daily, and Hackett said the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz was lifting fuel prices for container ships worldwide. (nrf.com) ### Which ports does this tracker cover? Global Port Tracker covers major U.S. container gateways including Los Angeles and Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York and New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast, NRF said. The report is produced for NRF by Hackett Associates. (nrf.com) Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024, according to the same May 8 release. The next checkpoints in the current forecast are April port reports and the projected summer readings running through September. (nrf.com)