Russia offensive stalls, 35,000 monthly

Western and Ukrainian officials said this week that Russia’s latest push in Ukraine has failed to produce a major breakthrough, even after months of costly assaults. Analysts citing U.S., British and Ukrainian assessments said Kyiv has made net territorial gains in 2026 while Russian forces have absorbed losses estimated at roughly 30,000 to 40,000 killed or wounded a month. At the same time, Ukraine has expanded long-range strikes on Russian airfields, factories, energy sites and logistics targets far from the front. Those battlefield trends are now unfolding alongside revived ceasefire contacts and a faster European push to rearm. ### Why are officials saying Russia’s push has stalled now? Brett McGurk, a former White House and State Department official, wrote in a CNN analysis published on May 20 that Russia had not converted its manpower advantage into meaningful gains and that Ukraine, not Russia, had achieved net territorial gains this year. He said western estimates put Russian casualties at levels approaching or exceeding 30,000 to 40,000 a month while Russia struggled to replenish those losses. (rnz.co.nz) The same analysis said Ukraine had created a 10-15 kilometer “kill zone” along parts of the front, where Russian troops face constant drone attack. That assessment aligns with broader reporting that Russian advances have slowed to a costly crawl even where Moscow has retained pressure in eastern Ukraine. (rnz.co.nz) ### Where is Ukraine applying pressure if the front is still contested? Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign has increasingly targeted military and industrial sites inside Russia, including airfields, weapons plants and energy infrastructure. Time reported on May 17 that a large Ukrainian drone strike near Moscow marked a further escalation in a campaign aimed at raising the cost of Russia’s war effort far from the battlefield. (rnz.co.nz) Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, in a report mirrored by GlobalSecurity, said this month that Ukrainian strikes have hit air defense systems, airfields and weapons plants as Russia struggles to sustain battlefield momentum. McGurk wrote that the attacks were forcing Russia to disperse air defenses, relocate aircraft and harden infrastructure. (time.com) ### How firm is the 35,000-a-month figure? The 35,000 figure is best understood as an estimate within a wider range. McGurk cited western estimates of 30,000 to 40,000 Russian casualties a month, while ABC News reported on May 15 that British and U.S. intelligence assessments put Russian losses at around 30,000 a month at times. (globalsecurity.org) Al Jazeera reported in April that Ukraine’s armed forces said Russian monthly losses had reached a new high in March as Kyiv scaled up drone production and strike capacity. Those figures are difficult to verify independently in real time, but multiple recent reports describe a pace of attrition that is high by the standards of the war’s earlier phases. (rnz.co.nz) ### Why does this connect to ceasefire talks and European rearmament? The House of Commons Library said in a briefing that U.S. policy toward Russia and Ukraine had shifted toward seeking a negotiated settlement and that the change had pushed European governments to step up defense spending and explore new security arrangements for Ukraine. The briefing said Europe was examining a “coalition of the willing” and broader rearmament steps as Washington’s position diverged from European capitals. (aljazeera.com) McGurk wrote that Ukraine’s growing ability to strike near Moscow may have contributed to President Vladimir Putin’s interest in a temporary pause. Al Jazeera, citing analysts, reported on May 20 that ceasefire diplomacy could also give Moscow time, underscoring how tentative the current contacts remain. (commonslibrary.parliament.uk) ### What should readers watch next? European governments are expected to keep advancing defense spending and Ukraine support plans while U.S.-Russia and U.S.-Ukraine contacts continue around possible ceasefire terms, according to the House of Commons Library. On the battlefield, the next test is whether Russia can restore offensive momentum faster than Ukraine can keep expanding deep-strike pressure on military and industrial targets inside Russia. (rnz.co.nz) (commonslibrary.parliament.uk)