Reuters poll expects 85,000 US jobs

Reuters reported over May 31 and June 1 that economists in its latest poll expect U.S. nonfarm payrolls to have risen by about 85,000 in May. The estimate points to slower hiring than the 115,000 increase the Labor Department reported for April. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%, according to the same Reuters-reported consensus. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish the May employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, June 5. ### Why is 85,000 jobs the number markets are focused on? The 85,000 figure is the median expectation in the Reuters poll cited in market coverage ahead of the report. That number matters because it would mark another month of modest job growth after April's 115,000 increase, a reading that already suggested a slower pace than March. The Labor Department said job gains in April were concentrated in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade, while federal government employment continued to decline. (bez-kabli.pl) April's 4.3% unemployment rate was unchanged from the prior month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Market coverage citing the Reuters poll said economists also expect the jobless rate to remain at 4.3% in the May report. ### What would a stronger or weaker number change for Treasury yields? (bez-kabli.pl) Edward Jones analyst Angelo Kourkafas told Reuters that a payrolls reading above 150,000 could revive concerns about an overheating economy. Reuters said that outcome could pressure stocks and push Treasury yields higher as investors reassess how much room the Federal Reserve has to cut rates. (bez-kabli.pl) The Economic Times said the employment report is the next major market catalyst for Wall Street after recent trading was shaped by inflation concerns and moves in oil and Treasury yields. That framing reflects how investors often use the monthly jobs report as a test of whether growth is slowing enough to ease price pressures without signaling a sharper downturn. (bez-kabli.pl) ### How does this compare with the last official labor-market reading? The Bureau of Labor Statistics said on May 8 that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 115,000 in April. That official report said unemployment held at 4.3% and highlighted job gains in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. (bez-kabli.pl) ADP said private employers added 109,000 jobs in April, describing health care and trade, transportation and utilities as areas of strength. ADP's report measures private payrolls rather than the full nonfarm total, but it is one of the labor indicators traders track before the government release. ### Where does the jobs report fit into the Fed calendar? (bls.gov) The Federal Reserve's next policy meeting is scheduled for June 16-17, according to the central bank's calendar. That means the June 5 employment report will arrive less than two weeks before policymakers meet and issue their next statement. (adpemploymentreport.com) The Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule shows the May employment report will be published on June 5, and the June report is scheduled for July 2. Those dates give investors two closely watched labor-market readings before the middle of the summer. ### What exactly comes out on June 5? The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Employment Situation report, which includes nonfarm payroll growth, the unemployment rate and wage data. (federalreserve.gov) The agency's release calendar lists the May report for 8:30 a.m. ET on June 5. June 5 is the next fixed point for investors, economists and Federal Reserve officials watching whether hiring is slowing from April's 115,000 pace and whether unemployment remains at 4.3% before the June 16-17 Fed meeting. (bls.gov)