Fed holds — one cut penciled in
The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March meeting and projected one rate cut in 2026, with Chair Powell warning cuts depend on clear progress on inflation. Elevated oil prices and geopolitical risk are keeping inflation expectations and market volatility elevated. (cnbc.com)
FOMC voting details: the committee voted 11‑1 and kept the operating target for the federal‑funds rate at 3.50%–3.75%, with the Board’s implementation note fixing the interest paid on reserve balances at 3.65% effective March 19, 2026. (cnbc.com) (federalreserve.gov) The Summary of Economic Projections showed policymakers nudged their 2026 inflation outlook higher to 2.7% for headline and core PCE, and the distribution of individual “dot” forecasts shifted so that seven of 19 participants now expect rates to remain unchanged this year. (bloomberg.com) (federalreserve.gov) Chair Powell told reporters it was “too soon to know” the full inflation impact from Middle East disruptions and said near‑term measures of inflation expectations have risen amid higher energy prices. (cnbc.com) Global energy risk: Brent and WTI futures topped roughly $110 per barrel on March 18 after reports of strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure and constrained shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. (semafor.com) Market pricing and rates moves: the U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield rose to about 4.27% on March 18 as traders re‑priced the timing of easing, and equities slid to session lows amid elevated volatility. (tradingeconomics.com) (cnbc.com) Crypto and DeFi on‑chain context: spot Bitcoin dipped below $71,000 intraday following the Fed press conference, Ethereum also weakened, total DeFi TVL registered about $99.1 billion on DefiLlama, and Ethereum Layer‑2 networks together show TVL near $30 billion with Arbitrum holding roughly 45% (~$13.4B) of that L2 pool. (coindesk.com) (defillama.com) (tradingview.com) Market expectations snapshot: futures‑based trackers showed markets largely pricing a hold in the near term (hold probability ~99% pre‑decision on CME tools) while trimming odds of multiple cuts across 2026, leaving a narrow window for any rate easing to materially relieve risk premia in crypto and equities. (fedwatch.com) (blog.kraken.com)
