Tariffs Squeezing Lumber Trade

Lumber prices can look calm on a screen while the cost of a kitchen remodel keeps climbing in real life. On April 9, 2026, lumber futures were about $590 per 1,000 board feet, but builders are paying for tariffs on the wood itself and on finished inputs that cross the border later in the job. (tradingeconomics.com) (nahb.org) The biggest squeeze starts with Canada, which is still the main foreign source of softwood lumber for the United States. In July and August 2025, the U.S. Commerce Department set final antidumping duty rates of 9.65% to 35.53% and countervailing duty rates of 12.12% to 16.82%, pushing the combined rate for most Canadian suppliers to 35.19%. (trade.gov 1) (trade.gov 2) (lesprom.com) That changed who ships wood into the United States. In January 2026, Canada’s share of U.S. softwood lumber imports fell by 4.7 percentage points from a year earlier, while Sweden gained 6.2 points and Finland added 0.2 points. (lesprom.com) The catch is that swapping suppliers does not make wood magically cheap. Moving more volume from Sweden or Finland means longer shipping routes, different mill specs, and a smaller nearby buffer when U.S. demand jumps. (lesprom.com) (nahb.org) The tariff story also spread beyond raw boards. The National Association of Home Builders said the Commerce Department imposed a 10% tariff on all timber and lumber imports in late 2025, plus a 25% tariff on kitchen cabinets and furniture, with cabinet levies scheduled to rise to 50% on January 1, 2026. (nahb.org) That is why a contractor can tell you “lumber is flat” and still hand over a bigger estimate. A house or renovation uses framing lumber, plywood, cabinets, doors, trim, and other wood products, so tariffs can hit several line items even if the benchmark two-by-four price barely moves. (nahb.org 1) (nahb.org 2) Paper and packaging companies are feeling the same border friction. On March 5, 2025, the American Forest and Paper Association said 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico could disrupt supply chains built over decades, because wood chips, pulp, base stock, and finished products often move through different mills on both sides of the border. (pulpapernews.com) Washington layered those industry-specific hits on top of broader tariff policy in 2026. The United States Trade Representative says President Trump imposed a temporary import surcharge under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 on February 20, 2026, and United States Customs and Border Protection says the administration also used Section 232 national security tariffs in 2025 and 2026. (ustr.gov) (cbp.gov) Economists at the Budget Lab at Yale estimated on April 2, 2026 that the U.S. average effective tariff rate had reached 11.0%, the highest since 1943 excluding 2025. They also estimated these tariff moves would raise the overall U.S. price level by 0.5% to 0.6% if the Section 122 tariffs expire on schedule, equal to about $650 to $780 for the average household. (budgetlab.yale.edu) So the lumber market now works like a grocery bill where the apples are on sale but the bags, trucking, and checkout fee all got pricier. The board price still matters, but the 2025 and 2026 tariff stack is pushing up the full cost of building long before a homeowner sees the first stud delivered to the driveway. (tradingeconomics.com) (budgetlab.yale.edu) (nahb.org)