Futures slide on blockade talk
U.S. futures fell sharply after a Trump comment about a Strait of Hormuz blockade, with posts tracking the move showing the Dow down about 450 points, the S&P roughly 1% lower, the Nasdaq about 1.3% lower and oil jumping roughly 10% ( ). The market reaction appeared across equity and commodity posts as geopolitical concern rippled through overnight trading ( ).
United States stock futures dropped early Monday after President Donald Trump said the United States would begin a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. (cnbc.com) By about 7:25 a.m. Eastern time on April 13, Dow futures were down roughly 450 points, while Standard & Poor’s 500 futures fell about 1% and Nasdaq 100 futures lost about 1.3%. Brent crude gained almost 8% in early trading, and United States crude rose more than 8% to above $104 a barrel late Sunday. (cnbc.com; bloomberg.com; nbcnews.com) Trump said Sunday, April 12, that the United States Navy would block ships entering or leaving the strait after talks with Iran collapsed. Politico reported that Trump also said the Navy would intercept vessels that had paid tolls to Iran for passage. (time.com; politico.com) The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow waterway between Iran and Oman that links the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The International Energy Agency said about 20 million barrels a day of crude oil and oil products moved through it in 2025, or about one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. (iea.org; iea.org) The United States Energy Information Administration said oil flows through the strait averaged 20.9 million barrels a day in the first half of 2025, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. The agency said most of those volumes have no practical alternative route out of the region. (eia.gov; eia.gov) Markets were already trading around a disrupted Hormuz route before Trump’s latest move. The Energy Information Administration said on April 7 that global oil markets were in a period of “heightened volatility and uncertainty” because of the de facto closure of the strait. (eia.gov) Analysts have been modeling triple-digit oil if the disruption lasts. Goldman Sachs said on April 9 that Brent could average more than $100 a barrel through 2026 if the strait stayed shut for another month, and JPMorgan said on April 10 that prices could revisit wartime highs if cargo flows do not recover until July. (bloomberg.com; bloomberg.com) The conflict behind the market move has been building for weeks. The International Energy Agency said the war in the region began on February 28 and has already cut liquefied natural gas supply by about 20% while creating what it called the largest oil supply disruption in market history. (iea.org) The next test is whether the blockade starts at 10 a.m. Eastern time on Monday, as several outlets reported, and whether tanker traffic is actually halted. Until traders can answer that, oil and equity futures are likely to keep moving on each military and shipping update. (cnbc.com; bloomberg.com; usatoday.com)
