Tesla delivery hit
UBS cut Tesla’s Q1 2026 delivery estimate to 345,000 vehicles — an 18% drop from Q4 2025 and about 7% below consensus — raising analyst skepticism about near‑term demand. Prediction markets put a 63% probability Tesla will miss 350,000 deliveries, and a long‑time bull has flipped to sell, warning the stock could plunge to $150 amid AI‑era concerns. ( )
UBS’s Q1 note was written by analyst Joseph Spak, and the bank kept a Sell rating on Tesla with a $352 price target. (thestreet.com) Spak’s team reported early‑quarter regional weakness: roughly 78,600 U.S. deliveries in January‑February (down ~6% year‑over‑year), a ~4% drop across Europe’s top eight markets, and about a 6% decline in China’s domestic retail deliveries, and noted a zero‑interest financing promotion running through March 31. (thestreet.com) UBS highlighted that Tesla’s roughly $20 billion capital‑expenditure plan for 2026 will be funded primarily by automotive cash flow, stressing that the car business remains the cash engine for Robotaxi, Optimus and Dojo investments. (thestreet.com) The Polymarket/derivative market tied to Q1 delivery outcomes has drawn substantial liquidity — roughly $626,200 of volume — and the delivery contracts are set to resolve at the end of March. (247wallst.com) Analyst Trip Chowdhry, historically bullish on Tesla through Global Equities Research and known for past high price targets and factory checks, has a long public record of bullish calls prior to his recent change in stance. (tipranks.com) Two near‑term data points to watch: the Polymarket delivery markets resolve around March 30, and Tesla’s next earnings call is scheduled for April 28, 2026 — the latter will give investors the company’s latest revenue, margin and guidance context after the quarter closes. (247wallst.com)
