China doubles down on growth
Forecasters project China’s GDP will top $25 trillion by 2030 as the 2026–2030 five‑year plan targets annual growth north of 30 trillion yuan, and Beijing announced completion of the world’s largest water network on World Water Day 2026 to support industrial and urban expansion. That scale of investment cements China as a global growth engine and could reshape trade and resource flows—even as economic cooperation with India runs up against persistent political tensions. (ua.news) (khabarasia.com) (indianexpress.com)
Forecast models for China’s nominal GDP diverge sharply — the IMF’s April 2025 projection put China at about $23.1 trillion by 2030 while other scenarios push toward $27.5 trillion depending on productivity and investment assumptions. (chinapower.csis.org) The IMF’s World Economic Outlook data show China’s nominal GDP in 2026 at roughly $20.65 trillion, providing a baseline for five‑year projections and currency‑sensitive comparisons. (imf.org) China’s 15th Five‑Year Plan (2026–2030) was approved by the National People’s Congress in mid‑March 2026 and explicitly prioritises “high‑quality” development, technological self‑reliance, industrial upgrading and expanded domestic demand. (english.www.gov.cn) At the Two Sessions, Beijing set a lower short‑term GDP target range for 2026 and approved a 2026 defence budget rise of 6.9% to 1.94 trillion yuan, signalling simultaneous emphasis on economic manageability and strategic capacity. (straitstimes.com) The Ministry of Water Resources told a World Water Day press conference that China’s upgraded national water infrastructure now covers about 80.3% of the country’s land area, a figure used to justify expanded industrial and urban water allocation. (news.cgtn.com) Beijing’s water build‑out included large capital flows during the 14th Five‑Year Plan with water‑conservancy investment during 2021–25 estimated above 5.4 trillion yuan, and the long‑running South‑North transfer project has an engineering capacity measured in tens of billions of cubic metres annually. (thediplomaticinsight.com) Bilateral trade with India rose to a reported record of roughly $155.6 billion in 2025 even as analysts warn politico‑strategic faultlines persist and diplomatic engagement remains cautious despite recent summit meetings. (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
