Mortgage rates climb amid market turmoil
Mortgage rates are climbing in reaction to market volatility, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at 6.045% Mortgage rates today, March 9, 2026 | Fortune. Other sources cite the 30-year fixed at 5.98% and the 15-year fixed at 5.50%, following a 17-basis-point surge in the past week as oil hit $100/barrel and job losses mounted March 2026 Mortgage Rates Near 6%, 15‑Year at 5.50% as Iran War and Job Losses Shake Market — Should You Lock In? | IBTimes UK.
The rise in mortgage rates comes amidst significant upheaval in global markets, largely spurred by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Oil prices have surged past $100 a barrel as the conflict disrupts approximately 20% of global oil supplies transiting through the Strait of Hormuz. This has triggered fears of increased inflation and potential recession, causing investors to seek safer havens. The war's economic impact extends beyond energy, with disruptions to airfreight and shipping, idling nearly one-fifth of global airfreight capacity due to airport closures, including Dubai. Shipping costs from Asia to Europe have jumped 45%, highlighting the uneven impact of the conflict. Some experts believe that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the price of oil could potentially reach $100 to $200 per barrel. Adding to the economic woes, the U.S. labor market unexpectedly shed 92,000 jobs in February, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. This was a surprise to economists, who had expected the addition of 60,000 jobs. Job losses were widespread, including in construction, healthcare, factories, and restaurants. Prior to the conflict, there was optimism that mortgage rates would decline further in 2026, with some hoping for rates closer to 3.20-3.30% on shorter-term fixed rates. However, the war has introduced significant uncertainty, making it difficult to predict future rate movements. The Federal Reserve's decisions regarding the federal funds rate will also play a crucial role.
