US–EU trade stays robust
Transatlantic goods trade hit a record $1.05 trillion in 2025 — a sign US–EU commercial ties kept moving despite tariff threats, reported. The headline masks legal uncertainty: the US goods deficit with the bloc narrowed only 7%, and a recent US Supreme Court decision that struck down the administration’s use of emergency tariff powers adds fresh doubt about future trade protection measures struck down.
AmCham’s Transatlantic Economy study breaks out)) 2025 goods flows by value, showing U.S. goods exports to the EU at about $414 billion and U.S. goods imports from the EU near $633 billion. Germany alone accounted for roughly $239 billion of bilateral goods trade with the U.S., representing about 23% of U.S.–EU goods exchanges, while Ireland showed a particularly large U.S. goods deficit of about $115 billion in 2025 according to the report)). The legal challenge at the center of next-phase trade uncertainty is Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which the Supreme Court decided)) on Feb. 20, 2026, addressing whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorizes presidential tariff orders. SCOTUSblog reported)) the Court issued a 6–3 decision and flagged that importers paid more than $200 billion in IEEPA-era tariffs in 2025, leaving open complex questions over whether and how refunds will be handled. State and private litigants kept pressure on the administration: a coalition of 24 states recently filed suit)) and separate suits led by New York and Massachusetts challenged the legal basis for the tariff program as reported)). Industry and some justices warned the ruling could unsettle negotiations and past deals, with Justice Kavanaugh’s dissent explicitly noting potential effects on trade agreements and the practical need to resolve whether importers will receive billions in refunds as discussed)).
