Fed meeting read: cautious
A March 19 Fed‑meeting explainer says the Fed is watching geopolitical shocks closely and is prepared to keep rates higher or hike again if energy‑driven inflation sticks — markets are pricing in more volatility as a result. (youtube.com)
The FOMC voted to hold the federal‑funds target range at 3.50%–3.75% at its March 17–18 meeting, with the policy statement released on March 18, 2026. (federalreserve.gov) The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections shows a median forecast of 2.4% real GDP growth for 2026, a 4.4% unemployment rate this year, and median total PCE inflation of 2.7% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. (federalreserve.gov) The SEP “dot plot” places the median appropriate federal‑funds rate at 3.4% at year‑end 2026 and 3.1% at year‑end 2027, signaling only modest easing compared with December. (federalreserve.gov) The policy vote was 11–1, with Governor Stephen Miran casting the lone dissent in favor of a 25‑basis‑point cut. (cnbc.com) Equity markets opened sharply lower after the meeting: the Dow fell about 768 points (roughly 1.63%), the S&P 500 dropped ~1.36%, and the Nasdaq declined ~1.46% on March 18. (cnbc.com) Treasury yields moved higher intraday, with the 10‑year Treasury trading near 4.265% and the 2‑year around 3.775% as traders re‑priced the path for policy. (cnbc.com) Energy market shocks intensified the repricing: Brent crude climbed above $108 a barrel and reached as high as $111.45 after strikes that Qatar said damaged Ras Laffan and removed roughly 17% of its LNG export capacity. (fortune.com) (cnbc.com) CME‑based FedWatch probabilities fell for an early cut — odds of a June 2026 rate cut dropped to about 18.4%, July to ~31.5% and September to ~43.6% — leaving traders pricing only one or fewer cuts in 2026. (cnbc.com)
