World Bank projects 7% commodity drop

The World Bank said global commodity prices are on track to fall to a six-year low by 2026 after a sharp drop in 2025. (worldbank.org) In its April 29, 2025 Commodity Markets Outlook, the bank projected overall commodity prices will drop about 12% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026. (worldbank.org 1) (worldbank.org 2) Energy is the biggest force in that forecast. The World Bank said energy prices are expected to fall 17% in 2025 and another 6% in 2026. (worldbank.org) Brent crude is forecast to average $64 a barrel in 2025, down $17 from 2024, and then slip to $60 in 2026. Coal prices are projected to fall 27% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026. (worldbank.org) The bank tied the decline to weaker global growth and ample oil supply. Its executive summary said more than half of the commodities in its forecast are set to get cheaper in 2025, many by more than 10%. (worldbank.org) That matters for inflation because energy prices had pushed global inflation up by more than 2 percentage points in 2022. The World Bank said falling energy prices in 2023 and 2024 already helped lower inflation, and that trend is expected to intensify. (worldbank.org) The relief is uneven. The World Bank said lower commodity prices could also hurt growth prospects in two out of every three developing economies, many of which depend on commodity exports for revenue. (worldbank.org) The report also says this is arriving after an unusually violent stretch for raw-material markets. Commodity-price volatility in the 2020s has been higher than in any previous decade since at least the 1970s. (worldbank.org 1) (worldbank.org 2) In early April 2025, between April 2 and April 8, Brent crude fell by a little more than $12 a barrel and copper dropped 11% as trade tensions rose and OPEC+ signaled more supply. (worldbank.org) The World Bank said the risks still run both ways: a deeper global slowdown or a full unwinding of OPEC+ supply cuts could push prices even lower, while wider conflict or extreme weather could send them back up. (worldbank.org) For now, the bank’s central call is simpler: cheaper oil and softer demand are pulling the world’s commodity bill down, even after years of shocks from the pandemic, war, and tariff fights. (worldbank.org 1) (worldbank.org 2)