Israel weighs renewed Gaza offensive

Israel and Hamas are back at the point where the ceasefire may not hold much longer. The immediate issue is disarmament — Israel says Hamas has to give up its weapons under the October ceasefire framework, while Hamas is refusing to do that without a permanent end to the war and a full Israeli withdrawal. Now Israeli military planners are preparing for the possibility that talks fail and the war shifts back into a large ground campaign. That would raise the risk to hostages, civilians, and any remaining diplomatic track. (timesofisrael.com) ### What changed now? The new thing is not just more airstrikes or tunnel demolitions. Israeli outlets say the military and political leadership are actively weighing a renewed offensive designed not simply to raid Hamas positions, but to stay in captured areas and use force to strip Hamas of military control. Israeli officials have framed that as the next step if negotiations over hostages and ceasefire terms stay deadlocked. (timesofisrael.com) ### Why is disarmament the sticking point? Because the two sides are talking about completely different end states. The October ceasefire framework envisioned a demilitarized Gaza and gradual Israeli withdrawal, but the mechanics were never really settled. Israel now appears to believe Hamas will not disarm voluntarily. Hamas, for its p(timesofisrael.com)ach side sees the other’s terms as surrender. (timesofisrael.com) ### Why do the hostages matter so much here? Because they are both a humanitarian issue and a military constraint. Ynet says Hamas is still holding 59 hostages. As long as hostages remain in Gaza, every expanded operation carries the risk of killing captives or making a deal harder. Israeli officials have been trying to leave room for negotiations before moving to a “decisive phase,” but that patience looks thinner now. (ynetnews.com) ### What would a new offensive look like? Not the old model of clearing an area and leaving. Israeli reporting describes a “capture and stay” approach — take territory, hold it, and prevent Hamas from reconstituting there. That is the core shift. The argument inside Israel is that previous raids became a costly loop: troops entered, Hamas fighters dispersed or hid, Israel pulled back, (ynetnews.com)eping forces in place. (ynetnews.com) ### Why are Israeli officials leaning this way? Because they think the current ceasefire has not actually frozen Hamas in place. Israeli military officials say Hamas has used the truce period to restore capabilities, and Israeli planners increasingly seem to believe force is the only route left if the goal is real disarmament. Turns out this is also about credibility inside Israel — a(ynetnews.com)round look less convincing to hardliners and much of the security establishment. (timesofisrael.com) ### What is the humanitarian catch? A bigger offensive would almost certainly mean more deaths, more displacement, and more damage to aid access. Even during the ceasefire period, Al Jazeera says hundreds of Palestinians have been killed and Israeli forces have kept expanding control in parts of Gaza. Any move from limited pressure to full-scale maneuver would make an already devastated territory harder to live in and harder to govern. (aljazeera.com) ### So what should you watch next? Watch for three signals — a major reserve call-up, formal cabinet approval of an expanded plan, and any collapse in hostage mediation. If those line up, the odds of renewed high-intensity fighting go up fast. The bottom line is simple: this is no longer just background military planning. Israel appears to be preparing for the possibility that the ceasefire’s next phase never arrives. (ynetnews.com)