Vietnam's Rice Exports Compete on Price and Policy
Vietnam is maintaining stable export prices for fragrant rice at $415–$430 per ton while pursuing a $100 billion national export target through aggressive economic diplomacy. Concurrently, analysts note that Vietnam has quietly increased scrutiny on organic certification for exports, which could slow some shipments to the EU.
- India's export restrictions on non-basmati white rice, in effect since July 2023, have caused the benchmark price for Thai white rice (5% broken) to rise by 22%. This has particularly affected importing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and South and Southeast Asia, forcing them to find alternative suppliers. - Vietnam is strategically shifting its exports toward higher-value grains, aiming for fragrant, japonica, and specialty rice to comprise 45% of its exports by 2030, while reducing the share of low-grade white rice to just 10%. The country's renowned ST25 fragrant rice has been successfully introduced to new high-standard markets like Canada. - The Philippines is the largest importer of Vietnamese rice, accounting for 46.1% of the market share in 2024, with Indonesia (13.5%) and Malaysia (8.2%) as other key buyers. Exports to Malaysia saw a significant 2.2-fold growth in 2024. - In the first half of 2025, Vietnam surpassed Thailand to become the world's second-largest rice exporter, behind India. This increased competition comes as Thai exporters face pressure from a strengthening baht, which is projected to make their products 10-20% more expensive than competitors'. - To improve quality and sustainability, the Vietnamese government is promoting a "One-Million-Hectares of High-Quality, Low-Emission Rice" project. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to build a national rice brand, with a goal of having 25% of all rice exports branded by 2030. - Exporters targeting the European Union face increasingly strict food safety standards. In early 2025, the EU issued 12 warnings against Vietnamese agricultural products for violations including unregistered "novel foods," mislabeling of allergens like eggs and peanuts, and use of illegal additives.
