India’s rice under stress
- Extreme heat is shrinking farm labour productivity in key Indian rice regions, threatening production. - India has opened a tender to import a record 2.5 million tonnes of urea at nearly double recent prices. - Higher fertiliser bills and labour strain raise questions about India’s cost advantage versus Thailand in upcoming export seasons (hindustantimes.com) (reuters.com).
India’s rice export machine is facing pressure from two sides at once: hotter fields are slowing farm work, and fertiliser costs have jumped after a record urea import tender. (hindustantimes.com) (zawya.com) A joint Food and Agriculture Organization and World Meteorological Organization report said extreme heat could push agricultural labour productivity below 40% in key Indian farming regions, with the Ganges and Indus basins facing the heaviest risk. The United Nations said heat is already erasing about half a trillion work hours a year across global food systems. (news.un.org) (hindustantimes.com) At the same time, India moved to buy 2.5 million tonnes of urea in a single tender, about a quarter of its annual imports of roughly 10 million tonnes in 2025. Government sources told Reuters the deal covered 1.5 million tonnes for the west coast at $935 a tonne and 1 million tonnes for the east coast at $959 a tonne. (thejakartapost.com) (deccanherald.com) Those prices are far above the roughly $500 a tonne India paid in a February tender, according to Reuters’ report on the April purchase. Traders and officials linked the spike to supply disruption tied to the Iran conflict and tighter global availability. (zawya.com) (firstpost.com) India entered 2026 with a strong rice position. Its exports rose 19.4% in 2025 to 21.55 million tonnes, the second-highest level on record, after New Delhi lifted the last export curbs imposed in 2022 and 2023. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) That rebound helped push Asian rice prices to their lowest in nearly a decade and squeezed rival exporters. Reuters reported in January that cheaper Indian supplies took market share from Thailand and Vietnam. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) Thailand is now getting some help from weather. The United States Department of Agriculture’s April 2026 Rice Outlook said global output was revised up on higher Thai production, while India’s 2025/26 production estimate was left unchanged at 152 million tonnes. (ers.usda.gov) (nationthailand.com) Thai exporters are still dealing with softer farm incomes and smaller planting areas in some places, but local reports say they are competing against lower-priced Indian and Pakistani rice. If India’s input and labour costs keep rising into the next crop cycle, that price gap could narrow. (nationthailand.com) (krungsri.com) For now, India still has scale, stocks and a record-sized export base. The question heading into the next export season is whether hotter fields and costlier nutrients start eating into the low-price edge that drove its 2025 surge. (economictimes.indiatimes.com) (hindustantimes.com)
