AAA predicts 39.1 million drivers

Memorial Day travel is still a road-trip story. AAA said on May 11 that 45 million Americans are expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25, and 39.1 million of them will drive. That is enough to set a new overall Memorial Day weekend record, but the more interesting part is the mix — people are still piling into cars even with gas prices running hotter than they were a year ago. ### What changed this year? The headline number is simple: more people are traveling overall, but slightly fewer are expected to drive than AAA projected for Memorial Day 2025. Last year’s forecast called for 45.1 million total travelers and 39.4 million drivers. This year the total is 45 million, with 39.1 million going by car. So the record is really about the whole holiday weekend, not a fresh surge in driving specifically. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Why are cars still winning? Because the car is still the cheapest flexible option for a lot of families. AAA says drivers make up 87% of Memorial Day travelers this year. That share is basically the whole story — even when airfare gets cheaper for some people, the car still wins if you are splitting costs across a family, bringing gear, or taking a shorter regional trip. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### So are gas prices not stopping anyone? They are slowing the momentum, but not killing the trip. AAA says pump prices are higher than last Memorial Day, when regular gas averaged $3.17 a gallon, and says current prices are the highest they have been since the summer of 2022. That helps explain why the driving forecast eased from 39.4 million last year to 39.1 million now, even though travel demand overall stayed huge. Basically, people still want the getaway — they are just absorbing a more expensive drive. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### What about flying? Flying is up a bit. AAA expects 3.66 million people to fly domestically this Memorial Day weekend, versus 3.61 million in the 2025 forecast. And AAA says average roundtrip domestic airfare for this year’s holiday bookings came in 6% lower, at about $800, because many tickets were bought before rising jet fuel costs started feeding through. That cheaper airfare probably helped keep the overall travel total at a record even as driving softened slightly. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Where will the pressure show up? On highways, rental counters, and roadside assistance trucks. AAA says Thursday and Friday are expected to be the busiest rental-car pickup days, and last Memorial Day it handled more than 350,000 roadside assistance calls for dead batteries, flat tires, and empty tanks. The top rental markets this year include Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver, and Boston. That is a good reminder that “39.1 million drivers” does not just mean traffic — it means a lot of stressed cars too. (newsroom.aaa.com) ### Why does this matter beyond one weekend? Because Memorial Day is the first real read on the summer consumer. People are still traveling. But they are doing it in a more price-sensitive way than last year — fewer projected drivers, higher fuel costs, and cheaper flights doing some of the work. The bottom line is that Americans have not backed away from holiday travel. They are just getting more selective about how they do it. (newsroom.aaa.com)