Panama Canal anchorages swell to 116 ships on May 2, signaling rising congestion

Panama Canal congestion is back in the conversation — but not in the old, drought-era way. On May 2, ship anchorages around the canal reportedly swelled to 116 vessels, a level well above the rough historical norm near 90. But canal management has been pushing a different line: the canal is open, water levels are healthy, and what shippers are seeing is less a system breakdown than a demand spike colliding with a finite booking system. ### Why are ships stacking up again? The simple version is that more ships want Panama at the same time. Canal traffic has been climbing through fiscal 2026, with 6,288 transits from October 2025 through March 2026, up 224 from a year earlier, while cargo tonnage rose about 5% to 254 million PC/UMS tons. Daily averages hit 34 vessels in January and 37 in March on the reservation calendar. ### Is this another drought crisis? Basically, no. That is the key distinction. In 2023 and 2024, the canal’s problem was water — low lake levels forced transit cuts and draft restrictions. Right now, officials say Gatún and Alhajuela lakes are at strong levels after unusually heavy dry-season rainfall, and they are framing operations as normal and reliable, able to move ships. ### If there is no queue, why do shippers care? Because “no queue” can still mean “expensive and unpredictable.” The clearest stress signal is the auction market for late transit slots. Canal finance officials said average auction prices that used to run around $135,000 to $140,000 before the latest geopolitical disruption climbed to about $385,000 in March and can explode fast. ### What changed in global shipping demand? One big driver is rerouting. Conflict tied to the Middle East has pushed some carriers to look for alternatives or to pay up for priority passage, which increases competition for Panama slots. Canal officials themselves linked the recent pricing spike and heavier pressure on reservations to those broader geopolitical shifts. You don't need a formal backlog crisis to create real commercial pain. ### Where does China fit into this? A separate political fight is now sitting on top of the traffic story. On April 29, the United States, Bolivia, Costa Rica, Guyana, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago backed Panama in a joint statement accusing China of targeted economic pressure on Panama-flagged vessels after Panama’s Supreme Court voided contracts tied to a Chinese firm. China said its inspections were routine. ### Why does that matter for canal users? Because shipping hates uncertainty more than almost anything. If transit demand is already elevated, and Panama-flagged vessels are also facing heavier scrutiny in parts of Asia, planners have to price in more variability — on timing, inspections, booking strategy, and even flag exposure. Newsweek cited data showing a sharp rise from February. Even if the canal itself keeps moving, the wider Panama-linked trade network gets noisier. ### So what should shippers watch next? Watch the spread between official calm and market behavior. If anchorages stay elevated, waiting times creep up, and auction prices remain extreme, then the canal is effectively getting more congested whether or not officials call it a queue. Also watch whether the China-Panama dispute broadens from port politics into something that changes vessel behavior or booking patterns more directly. ### Bottom line? The Panama Canal is not reliving the worst of the drought. But it is getting busier, pricier, and politically messier — and for shipping, that can be enough to feel like congestion anyway.