Ryanair says almost zero fuel concerns

Michael O’Leary’s latest message is a marked change from the warnings European airlines were issuing only weeks ago. The Ryanair chief executive said on May 18 that he saw no risk that a jet fuel shortage would force flight cancellations in Europe this summer, adding that the airline now had “almost zero concerns” about fuel supplies across the region. Those remarks, reported after Ryanair’s annual results, came as airlines and investors watched the fallout from conflict in the Middle East and earlier fears that Europe could face supply disruption. ### Where did the fuel shortage fears come from? April 29 was the point when O’Leary was still warning there was no “100 percent guarantee” Europe would avoid supply problems over the summer. In an interview reported by Politico, he said Europe was unlikely to face shortages in May but stopped short of ruling out problems later in the peak travel season. Since the war in the Middle East began on Feb. 28, jet fuel prices in Europe had more than doubled, according to that report. (rte.ie) Last month, Sky News also reported O’Leary saying jet fuel supplies could be disrupted because of the Middle East conflict. BreakingNews.ie separately reported him saying supplies could be disrupted in May and June if the war in Iran continued. Those warnings fed broader concern that airlines could face higher costs or operational strain during the summer holiday period. (politico.eu) ### What exactly did O’Leary say this week? May 18 is when O’Leary publicly shifted to a more reassuring line. RTÉ reported him telling a conference call after Ryanair’s annual results: “We now have almost zero concerns over fuel supplies across Europe” and “We do not see any real risk to supplies.” Reuters, carried by other outlets, reported the same day that he saw no risk a jet fuel shortage would force cancellations in Europe this summer. (news.sky.com) Manchester Evening News, in a May 20 report, said Europe could avoid a jet fuel crisis this summer as suppliers increased output and imports from outside the Middle East were boosted. That report echoed O’Leary’s more recent assessment and framed it against earlier concern over the Strait of Hormuz and higher oil prices. (rte.ie) ### Has the wider airline industry stopped worrying? Europe’s airline lobby was still pressing Brussels on May 20, even as Ryanair said immediate fuel-supply fears were receding. RTÉ reported that Airlines for Europe said carriers were losing ground to global rivals and needed stronger EU support to handle rising regulatory costs, make sustainable aviation fuel more affordable and improve crisis management. (manchestereveningnews.co.uk) The industry group’s position shows that the debate has moved beyond whether planes can get fuel this summer. Airlines for Europe said the European Union should address what it called the “structural failure” of the sustainable aviation fuel market, while also tackling airspace congestion and competitive pressure from non-EU carriers, including Chinese and Middle Eastern airlines. (rte.ie) ### Does this mean fares and operations are fully insulated? Ryanair’s own fuel position remains part of the answer. MSN, citing O’Leary, reported that the airline is “80% hedged out of March 27,” giving it protection against swings in oil prices even if broader market volatility persists. That does not remove cost pressure across the sector, but it helps explain why Ryanair has sounded calmer than it did in April. (rte.ie) Other airlines may be more exposed. Earlier reporting cited by Sky News said easyJet chief executive Kenton Jarvis had warned consumers to expect higher ticket prices toward the end of summer when existing fuel hedges expire. That suggests supply fears may have eased faster than pricing pressure. ### What should travelers and airlines watch next? (msn.com) Thursday, May 21, was the deadline for feedback on the European Union’s new Aviation and Aeronautics Strategy, according to RTÉ’s report on the airline lobby’s submission. That process is where carriers including Ryanair and the Airlines for Europe group are seeking action on fuel affordability, regulation and crisis handling ahead of the summer peak. (news.sky.com) Summer operations across Europe will provide the next test. Ryanair has said it sees no real supply risk through the season, while the wider industry is still pressing for EU action on costs and sustainable fuel as traffic builds into the main holiday months. (rte.ie 1) (rte.ie 2)