Playoff Favorites Hold
- Higher seeds are controlling seven of eight NBA first-round matchups so far in this postseason. (nytimes.com) - Seven of eight first-round series favor the better seed, the lone exception being Rockets vs injured Lakers. (nytimes.com) - That pattern makes the Knicks–Hawks matchup unusually close, with Game 3 listed as a pick ’em. (nytimes.com)
The 2026 National Basketball Association playoffs have opened with a familiar shape: the better seed still holds the edge in seven of the league’s eight first-round series. (nba.com) Through games played by April 22, only one lower seed had a 2-0 series lead: the No. 5 Houston Rockets against the No. 4 Los Angeles Lakers. Top seeds Oklahoma City and Cleveland were both up 2-0, while New York, Boston, Detroit, San Antonio and Denver were all at worst tied 1-1. (nba.com) The closest matchup on the board Thursday night was New York against Atlanta, the East’s No. 3 and No. 6 seeds, with the series tied 1-1 heading into Game 3 at 7 p.m. Eastern in Atlanta. Atlanta erased a 12-point fourth-quarter deficit to win Game 2, 107-106, after New York took Game 1, 113-102. (nba.com) Betting markets reflected that split. Action Network listed Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite for Game 3 on April 23, with the moneyline nearly even at Hawks -102 and Knicks -118. (actionnetwork.com) The bracket itself helps explain the pattern. The first round began April 18 after the play-in tournament ran from April 14 through April 17, so most series have only two games of evidence and most higher seeds have not yet faced a road game. (nba.com) The one clear exception came in the West, where injuries reshaped Lakers-Rockets before the series even started. The Lakers opened the postseason without Luka Dončić and Austin Reaves, and Houston’s Kevin Durant was ruled out for Game 1 with a right knee injury. (nba.com 1) (nba.com 2) Even there, the results were mixed. Los Angeles won Game 1, 107-98, before Houston recovered to take the next two games and move ahead 2-1, making that series the only first-round matchup in which the lower seed had seized control by April 23. (espn.com) (nba.com) That leaves Knicks-Hawks as the night’s cleanest test of whether the opening round stays orderly. A 3-vs.-6 series that is already 1-1 and priced nearly even is the rare matchup that looks less like seeding and more like a coin flip. (nba.com) (actionnetwork.com)
