Bill Cassidy loses Louisiana primary

Bill Cassidy’s Senate career ended on May 16 when Louisiana Republicans denied the two-term incumbent a place in the runoff for his own seat. Rep. Julia Letlow, who had Donald Trump’s endorsement, finished first in the primary, and state Treasurer John Fleming finished second, according to Associated Press results cited by Reuters. (usnews.com) Cassidy, who voted in 2021 to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial, conceded in Baton Rouge after finishing third. The result sent the race to a June 27 runoff in a state Republicans are expected to hold in November. ### How did Cassidy get knocked out of a race he entered as the incumbent? Reuters reported that Letlow led Fleming 45.2% to 28.3% with 98% of votes counted, leaving Cassidy in third place and out of the runoff. (usnews.com) Louisiana’s Republican primary required a majority to avoid a second round, and no candidate reached that threshold on Saturday. Cassidy had argued that his fundraising, his Senate record and turnout from voters outside the Republican base could keep him alive, Politico reported. That calculation failed in the state’s new semi-closed primary system, under which unaffiliated voters could choose a party ballot but Democrats could not cross over into the Republican contest. (usnews.com) ### Why was Trump central to this race? Trump made Cassidy a target after the senator joined six other Republicans in 2021 to vote for conviction after the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. La Illluminator reported that Trump endorsed Letlow in January, before she had formally entered the race, and Gov. Jeff Landry backed the same effort. Trump celebrated the result on Saturday night. (usnews.com) Reuters quoted him saying Cassidy’s “disloyalty” was now “a part of legend” and that his political career was “OVER!” Letlow, in a post on X cited by Reuters, thanked Louisiana voters and said the state was ready for “strong conservative leadership that will stand with President Trump.” (politico.com) ### Who moves on, and what kind of runoff is coming? Letlow entered the race with Trump’s endorsement and a geographic base in north Louisiana, while Fleming ran as a longtime conservative with ties to Trump’s orbit. Politico reported that Fleming cut into Letlow’s lead late in the campaign, setting up what it described as an already expensive fight to late June. (lailluminator.com) The June 27 runoff will decide which Republican faces Democrat Jamie Davis in the November 3 general election. Reuters and the Louisiana Illuminator both reported that analysts rate Louisiana as solidly Republican, making the GOP runoff the decisive stage of the contest for most national observers. (usnews.com) ### What did Cassidy say as he conceded? Cassidy told supporters in Baton Rouge that losing did not change his view of democratic norms. The Louisiana Illuminator quoted him saying, “Our country is not about one individual,” and added that he criticized candidates who “pout,” “whine” or claim elections were stolen. Politico reported that Cassidy also appeared to jab at Trump more directly, saying insults only matter if they come from someone with “character and integrity.” Cassidy remains in office through the end of his term, including as chair of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. (politico.com) ### Why are Republicans outside Louisiana watching this result? Politico described Cassidy’s defeat as a warning to other Republicans who have crossed Trump, pointing to upcoming contests in Georgia and Kentucky as the next tests. (usnews.com) Reuters reported that Cassidy is the first elected U.S. senator to lose renomination since 2012, underscoring how unusual the result is for an incumbent senator. (lailluminator.com) Tuesday’s primaries in Georgia and Kentucky are the next races Politico identified as measures of Trump’s influence inside the party. In Louisiana, the next formal milestone is June 27, when Letlow and Fleming will compete for the Republican nomination to face Jamie Davis on November 3. (politico.com)