Talks look likely to fail

Israeli officials were already signaling the ceasefire talks could fail before the negotiations in Pakistan ended without a deal on April 12. (cnbc.com) Vice President JD Vance said after 21 hours of talks in Islamabad that the United States had “not reached an agreement” and was leaving with a “final and best offer.” He said the central dispute was Iran’s refusal to commit not to seek a nuclear weapon or the tools to build one quickly. (cnbc.com) Before the meeting, Reuters reported that Tehran had thrown the talks into doubt by demanding commitments on Lebanon and sanctions before negotiations could begin. The same Reuters report said the United States delegation was led by Vance, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, while Iran sent parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. (usnews.com) The talks were the first official face-to-face United States-Iran negotiations since the 2015 nuclear deal, and the highest-level contact since Iran’s 1979 revolution, according to Reuters. They followed a Pakistan-mediated two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 after six weeks of war. (usnews.com) (understandingwar.org) Israel entered that pause with public skepticism. Politico reported on April 8 that Israeli politicians and security hawks saw the ceasefire as giving Iran time to regroup, while former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman said the pause gave “the ayatollah regime a timeout and an opportunity to reorganize.” (politico.com) At the same time, Iran’s overseas missions were using X and other platforms as part of a coordinated messaging campaign. The Times of Israel, citing Agence France-Presse, reported on April 7 that Iranian embassies had become unusually active online during the war, posting taunts and political messages aimed at foreign audiences. (timesofisrael.com) That online escalation came against a wider regional rupture. Saudi Arabia said on March 21 that it had expelled Iran’s military attaché, an assistant attaché and three other mission staff after what Riyadh called repeated Iranian attacks on Saudi territory. (aljazeera.com) Lebanon was also part of the dispute around the Pakistan talks. Reuters reported on April 11 that Iran insisted a ceasefire in Lebanon was tied to the broader diplomacy, while the United States and Israel said the Lebanon campaign was outside the Iran-United States ceasefire. (usnews.com) Netanyahu said on April 9 that Israel wanted direct negotiations with Lebanon focused on disarming Hezbollah, but he also said “there is no ceasefire in Lebanon” and that Israeli strikes would continue. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun said a ceasefire had to come first. (timesofisrael.com) By Sunday, the diplomacy and the messaging war were pointing in the same direction: the Pakistan channel had not produced a deal, and every side was still arguing over what any ceasefire was supposed to cover. (cnbc.com) (usnews.com)