Trade policy is drifting

Washington’s China fight is moving off the tariff chart and into the supply chain. (semafor.com) Semafor reported on April 21 that the run-up to a Trump-Xi summit next month points to “more, rather than less, tension” even as the tariff conflict eases. The same report said the next clash is shaping up around supply chains rather than headline import taxes. (semafor.com) That means more pressure on what companies buy, where they build, and which chips and factory tools they can ship. The Bureau of Industry and Security has spent the past two years tightening rules on advanced semiconductors, chipmaking equipment, and the companies allowed to receive them in China. (bis.gov) Export controls work like a licensing gate: a product can be legal in one market and blocked in another if Washington says it could aid China’s military or artificial-intelligence capacity. In October 2023, Commerce said its rules were meant to impair China’s ability to produce advanced-node semiconductors used in next-generation weapons systems, artificial intelligence, and advanced computing. (bis.gov) The rules have kept expanding. In December 2023, Commerce updated restrictions on advanced computing semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and in March 2025 it added 80 entities from China and other countries to the Entity List. (bis.gov, bis.gov) Washington has also moved from blocking sales to policing workarounds. In May 2025, the Bureau of Industry and Security warned companies that using certain China-made advanced-computing chips, including Huawei Ascend processors, could trigger enforcement risk under U.S. export-control rules. (bis.gov) The Trump administration has not followed a straight line on chip policy. On January 13, 2026, Commerce said it would review export license applications for Nvidia H200, AMD MI325X, and similar chips on a case-by-case basis for approved customers in China after Trump’s December 8, 2025 announcement. (bis.gov) At the same time, Commerce has opened Section 232 national-security investigations into sectors including semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, critical minerals, robotics and industrial machinery, and polysilicon. Those probes give Washington another way to reshape sourcing rules without relying on across-the-board tariff hikes. (bis.gov) Beijing is still answering U.S. pressure with its own trade tools. On March 29, Semafor reported that China had opened two probes into U.S. trade practices after Washington launched trade inquiries this year, with both sides trying to build leverage before Trump’s Beijing visit. (semafor.com) For manufacturers and buyers, the practical change is less about a tariff rate on a customs form and more about compliance inside the factory and the procurement office. The opening fight was about taxing goods at the border; the next one is about tracing parts, screening customers, and proving where critical technology comes from. (semafor.com, bis.gov)