Fertilizer supply under strain
Middle East disruptions are threatening fertilizer availability, which raises input cost and yield risk for regional agriculture and could feed into rice production costs over coming seasons. Tight fertilizer markets amplify the same energy-and-logistics pressures that are already lifting grain landed costs. (x.com) (x.com)
A ship bottleneck in the Middle East can end up in a rice field months later, because about 30% of global fertilizer trade passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024 and the Gulf has been the world’s biggest exporting region for urea and ammonia in recent years. The products under pressure are not obscure chemicals. Urea and ammonia are the main nitrogen fertilizers, and nitrogen is the nutrient farmers use to push leaf growth and grain formation in cereals like rice. This shock starts with energy before it reaches farming. Ammonia is made mostly from natural gas, and the Food and Agriculture Organization says the same conflict threatening fertilizer shipments is also threatening liquefied natural gas and oil flows through the same waterway. Shipping is the second squeeze. S&P Global reported in March 2026 that vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had dropped 75% in the conflict, which means fewer ships, longer waits, and higher freight bills even before a bag of fertilizer reaches a port. Prices reacted fast. S&P Global said granular urea jumped 38.8% from under $500 per metric ton in late February to $680 per metric ton by March 13, right in the middle of a key buying window for many growers. The Middle East matters here because it is not just one more supplier. International Food Policy Research Institute data show Gulf countries were the largest regional exporters of urea and ammonia from 2023 through 2025, and also the second largest regional exporters of diammonium phosphate and monoammonium phosphate, which are major phosphate fertilizers. Rice is especially exposed because nitrogen is the input farmers adjust most often during the season. The International Rice Research Institute says fertilizer nitrogen has been central to raising rice yields, and cutting it at the wrong stage can reduce production even when seed and water are unchanged. That does not mean every higher fertilizer bill turns into an immediate food shortage. It means farmers facing expensive or delayed deliveries often apply less than planned, and the Food and Agriculture Organization warned in March 2026 that fertilizer shortages and higher energy prices could threaten crop yields and food security worldwide. Importing countries in Asia and Africa are the most vulnerable to the timing problem. If fertilizer arrives late, farmers can miss the narrow application windows that matter for rice tillering and grain filling, and they cannot fully make up for that with extra fertilizer later. The result is a double charge on food costs. Grain importers are already paying more for fuel and shipping, and now the fertilizer used to grow the next crop is getting pricier too, which is why the Food and Agriculture Organization and S&P Global both warned that the conflict is feeding farm-to-fork inflation through energy, freight, and fertilizer at the same time. Potash has held up better than nitrogen in this round, but International Commodity Intelligence Services said even potash was starting to feel higher freight costs by mid-March, which means the stress is no longer confined to one nutrient. What happens next depends less on agronomy than on sea lanes. If exports from the Gulf normalize, fertilizer availability can recover quickly; if shipping and gas flows stay disrupted into the next planting cycles, the cost of growing rice and other staples stays higher long after the headlines move on.
