Summer flights risk

Airline tickets for summer trips are getting more expensive, and some flights may disappear from schedules as jet fuel stays scarce and costly. (reuters.com) (washingtonpost.com) United Airlines Chief Executive Scott Kirby said on Wednesday, April 22, that fares may need to rise 15% to 20% to cover the jump in fuel costs. Reuters reported the warning as airlines head into the busiest travel stretch of the year. (reuters.com) The supply problem is tied to the Iran war and disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a shipping lane that CNBC reported carries about 20% of global oil supply and roughly 25% to 30% of the world’s jet fuel. Europe is the most exposed, while the United States is somewhat buffered by domestic production. (cnbc.com) The International Energy Agency said in its April 2026 oil market report that Europe may have about six weeks of jet fuel left. The International Air Transport Association said the global average jet fuel price last week was $184.63 a barrel, down 6.7% from the week before but still at elevated levels. (iea.org) (iata.org) That squeeze is already changing airline math. CNBC reported that some carriers have started trimming schedules, and The Washington Post said airlines in Europe, Asia and Oceania have added fuel surcharges or raised fares as the conflict drags on. (cnbc.com) (washingtonpost.com) For travelers, the pressure is worst for people who have not booked yet. The Washington Post said fare data for May 8 was already showing higher prices weeks before the usual summer peak, and it advised booking early for the first half of the season. (washingtonpost.com) Passengers who already hold tickets are not locked into the original itinerary if an airline makes a major change. The U.S. Department of Transportation says airlines must provide a prompt refund when they cancel a flight or make a significant change and the passenger declines the alternative offered. (transportation.gov 1) (transportation.gov 2) The risk is not evenly spread across routes. CNBC reported that overseas flights on international carriers face more direct exposure to fuel shortages, while domestic U.S. flying is less vulnerable unless the global disruption worsens. (cnbc.com) Summer travel demand has stayed strong enough that airlines think they can test higher prices. Whether they can hold those increases without cutting more flights will become clearer as carriers finalize schedules for June, July and August. (reuters.com) (washingtonpost.com)