Fed likely to hold
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged at the March 18 meeting as policymakers weigh the Iran conflict and higher oil prices — most forecasters are now delaying 2026 rate cuts, keeping borrowing costs elevated. Fed outlook Rate-cut delay context
Futures markets show almost certain odds the Fed will keep the target range at 3.50%–3.75% on March 18 — Investing.com’s Fed rate monitor put the probability for 3.50%–3.75% at about 99.6% as of its Mar. 16 update. (investing.com) Brent crude traded above $105 a barrel and U.S. WTI hovered around $100 on March 16 after strikes on Middle East export facilities, with Reuters reporting Brent at $105.44 and WTI near $100.00. (money.usnews.com) Brent’s one‑month move has been dramatic: trading platforms show Brent up roughly 52.9% over the past month and about 45% year‑over‑year as of Mar. 16, underscoring the energy‑price shock feeding into inflation risks. (tradingeconomics.com) A Bloomberg survey of economists found the median forecast moved the Fed’s first 2026 rate cut from March to June, while respondents still expected two 25‑basis‑point reductions by year‑end in that poll published Mar. 13. (bloomberg.com) The Fed’s public record shows the Committee left the federal‑funds target range at 3½–3¾% in its Jan. 28 statement and said it would “carefully assess incoming data” when considering timing of further moves; the FOMC press conference is scheduled for Mar. 18 at 2:30 p.m. ET on the Fed’s calendar. (federalreserve.gov) Market strategists remain split on the path after the pause: BNY’s macro team is still modeling multiple cuts later in 2026, while large houses such as J.P. Morgan published research in January that saw the Fed holding near current levels before only modest easing later in the year. (thecoinomist.com)
