Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz

Iran escalated its rhetoric on July 9 with fresh threats against U.S. forces and renewed warnings over the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iranian state-linked outlets and recent reporting on the waterway. Iranian state media in recent days have also carried repeated warnings that Tehran could target U.S. military facilities in the region and revisit its commitments under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. U.S. Energy Information Administration data show that oil flows through the strait averaged 20 million barrels per day in 2024, equal to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, while around one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas trade also passed through it. The latest threats come after months of confrontation around the same route. (en.irna.ir) Reuters reported on April 17 that Iran temporarily reopened the strait during a ceasefire period but warned it could close the waterway again if a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continued. ### Why does the Strait of Hormuz keep coming up in every Iran crisis? (eia.gov) The Strait of Hormuz links the Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. EIA says there are few alternative options to move comparable oil volumes out of the Gulf if the route is disrupted. In 2024, the route handled more than one-quarter of total global seaborne oil trade, according to EIA. (usnews.com) That is why even threats, rather than an actual closure, can move energy markets and shipping calculations. ### What exactly has Iran said this time? IRNA reported on July 8 and July 9 that Iranian military and Revolutionary Guards statements threatened retaliation against U.S. military positions in the region after what Tehran described as American attacks on southern Iran. (eia.gov) IRNA said Iranian forces had already struck U.S. targets in Bahrain and elsewhere, and carried warnings that any new attack would bring broader consequences. Mehr and other Iranian outlets have also carried warnings in recent weeks about both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab. Those reports framed the waterways as pressure points Iran and allied forces could use if military action continued. ### Has Iran actually closed the strait before? Reuters reported on April 17 that Iran had reopened the strait after a ceasefire understanding, while making clear it considered closure a live option if U.S. pressure continued. (en.irna.ir) That episode showed Tehran treating access to the waterway as leverage rather than a one-off threat. (en.mehrnews.com) Al Jazeera reported in June that shipping traffic had already slowed sharply during an earlier declared shutdown, citing ship-tracking data. That reporting described the route as a central sticking point in U.S.-Iran talks. ### Where does the NPT threat fit in? Iranian state-linked outlets have in recent months tied military pressure on Iran’s nuclear facilities to debate inside Tehran over continued cooperation with the non-proliferation system. (usnews.com) Mehr in April said attacks by the United States and Israel had damaged the NPT regime and the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards system, citing Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov. (aljazeera.com) That does not amount to a formal withdrawal announcement. But it shows that Iranian media and officials are linking military escalation, nuclear oversight and maritime threats in the same pressure campaign. That is an inference from the pattern of state-linked reporting. ### Why is the Gaza poll showing up alongside this story? AP-NORC released a poll on July 7 showing that about 3 in 10 U.S. adults, including roughly half of Democrats, believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians in Gaza. (en.mehrnews.com) The poll also found that about half of Americans said they did not know enough to say. (en.irna.ir) The poll is separate from Iran’s military threats, but it adds to the broader political backdrop in the United States as the war in Gaza and regional spillover continue. July 9 statements from Iranian state-linked outlets are likely to be followed by fresh comments from U.S. officials, Gulf governments and shipping monitors if military activity around southern Iran or the Gulf intensifies. (ap.org) EIA’s chokepoint data and AP-NORC’s July 7 poll are the clearest public reference points for what markets and politicians are watching next. (eia.gov) (usnews.com)