AAA projects 3.66 million fliers

AAA said its Memorial Day travel forecast for 2026 points to another crowded holiday at U.S. airports, with 3.66 million people expected to take domestic flights over the five-day travel period. The group said the air total is up 0.3% from a year earlier and is part of a broader record forecast of 45 million Americans traveling at least 50 miles from home between Thursday, May 21, and Monday, May 25. Most of those trips will be by car, not plane, even as fuel costs rise. AAA’s forecast puts the airline share of the holiday surge in context. The group expects 39.1 million people to drive, making road trips the dominant mode for the weekend. Gas prices, however, are higher than a year ago, and AAA said on May 21 that the national average for regular gasoline had reached $4.56 a gallon, the highest Memorial Day weekend level in four years. ### How big is the airline number in AAA’s forecast? AAA said 3.66 million domestic air travelers would account for about 8% of all Memorial Day travelers this year. The group described that as a small increase from 2025, with higher demand supporting the gain even as travelers continue to weigh costs across flights, rental cars and gasoline. (midstates.aaa.com) The broader forecast shows how much larger the driving market remains. AAA said 39.1 million people are expected to drive over the holiday weekend, compared with the 3.66 million projected to fly. Yahoo, citing AAA guidance, also reported that more than 39 million people would be on the roads this weekend. (midstates.aaa.com) ### Why are airports still expected to be crowded? AAA said overall Memorial Day travel is set to reach a record 45 million people this year, slightly above 2025 levels. That larger pool of travelers means even a modest year-over-year increase in flying can translate into packed terminals, longer security lines and heavier traffic around major hubs. (exploreclarion.com) Chicago and Atlanta airport officials have already outlined the scale. The Chicago Department of Aviation expects a little more than 2 million passengers at O’Hare and Midway combined from Thursday through Tuesday, while FOX 5 Atlanta reported 2.7 million passengers are expected over the holiday travel period at Hartsfield-Jackson. (visionmonday.com) ### What is pushing more people onto the roads instead? AAA’s forecast shows driving remains the default Memorial Day option for most Americans. The group said 39.1 million people would travel by car, setting a record for the holiday period even with pump prices at their highest level since summer 2022. WTVR and other outlets described this year’s gas prices as the highest Memorial Day levels in years. (mcall.com) AAA’s May 21 fuel update said regular gasoline averaged $4.56 a gallon nationally, up 3 cents from a week earlier and $1.38 from the same time last year. ### What does AAA say about costs beyond gas? AAA said average ticket prices for flights were lower than last year for travelers who booked early. (claimsjournal.com) The group also said domestic car rentals were 1% cheaper than a year earlier, based on AAA booking data. Hertz, cited by AAA, said Thursday and Friday were expected to be the busiest pickup days for holiday renters. (gasprices.aaa.com) AAA said the top five rental-car markets by demand were Orlando, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Denver and Boston. ### When does this forecast period end? AAA said its Memorial Day holiday travel window runs from Thursday, May 21, through Monday, May 25. (exploreclarion.com) Airport operators, state transportation agencies and fuel trackers are expected to keep updating traffic, passenger and price data through the end of the weekend and into the return rush on Monday. (iheart.com) (midstates.aaa.com)