Polymarket shows 69% no‑cut odds

Polymarket’s live Fed rates page showed on May 17 that traders were assigning about a 71% probability to zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Kalshi’s comparable market showed 67% odds for exactly zero cuts, putting the two prediction venues in roughly the same range. The move extends a repricing in rate expectations that has left “no cuts” as the single largest outcome on both platforms. CME Group’s FedWatch tool, which tracks probabilities implied by fed funds futures, said upcoming meeting odds should be attributed to “CME FedWatch.” ### What exactly are these markets showing? Polymarket listed “0 (0 bps)” at 71% in its market on how many Fed rate cuts will occur in 2026, with “1 (25 bps)” at 16% and “2 (50 bps)” at 5.5%. The same page showed about $27 million in volume on that contract and a separate market implying a 32% chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. Polymarket says prices on its contracts reflect implied probabilities and pay out based on the real-world outcome. Kalshi’s Fed category showed “Exactly 0 cuts” at 67% in its 2026 rate-cuts contract, with “Exactly 1 cut” at 17%. The exchange also showed a separate market at 66% for “No” on whether the Fed will cut rates before 2027. Kalshi describes those listings as prediction markets tied to Fed meetings, rate decisions and related policy signals. ### Why are Polymarket and Kalshi being compared? (polymarket.com) Polymarket and Kalshi are both offering contracts on the same broad question: how many times the Fed will cut in calendar 2026. The comparison matters because the two markets are independently priced, yet both were pointing on May 17 to zero cuts as the leading outcome. That alignment does not make the forecast correct, but it does show that traders on both venues were clustered around the same result. (kalshi.com) PredictMarketCap, which aggregates odds from both venues, showed Polymarket at roughly 71.5% for zero cuts and described current odds as about 72% for zero, 16% for one cut and 6% for two. The site’s figures are consistent with the live prices visible on Polymarket and Kalshi on Sunday. ### How does that compare with futures-based rate expectations? (polymarket.com) CME Group’s FedWatch tool does not answer the full-year 2026 question in the same format as prediction markets, but it is the standard reference for probabilities implied by 30-day fed funds futures. CME says the tool tracks the likelihood of changes to the federal target rate at upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meetings and asks media to attribute those probabilities to “CME FedWatch.” (predictmarketcap.com) The difference is methodological. Prediction markets quote the price of a contract that resolves to a defined year-end or event outcome, while FedWatch derives meeting-by-meeting probabilities from futures prices. Those measures can move together, but they are not interchangeable. ### What is the Fed’s current policy setting? (cmegroup.com) The Federal Reserve’s target range remained at 3.50% to 3.75% after its April 28-29, 2026 meeting, according to Federal Reserve data series carried by FRED. Polymarket’s page for upcoming meetings also showed “No change” at 98% for the June meeting and 94% for July, reflecting expectations that the current range will hold in the near term. (cmegroup.com) The Federal Reserve Board says the FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings each year and publishes meeting statements and minutes on its calendar page. That calendar is the official source for the committee’s schedule and related documents. ### Which dates matter next? The Federal Reserve Board’s calendar lists the next FOMC meeting for June 16-17, 2026. (fred.stlouisfed.org) The Board says minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the policy decision, which makes the June statement and subsequent minutes the next official milestones for traders watching whether “no cuts” remains the dominant 2026 market view. (federalreserve.gov)