China export growth slows; export‑control bottlenecks

China’s export growth slowed sharply in March, just as United States controls on advanced chip sales to China are getting harder to process in Washington. (cnbc.com) China’s exports rose 2.5% in March from a year earlier, down from a combined 21.8% increase in January and February and below the 8.6% growth expected by analysts polled by Reuters. Imports jumped 27.8%, the fastest pace since November 2021. (cnbc.com) The March trade data landed on April 14, 2026, after fighting involving Iran pushed up energy costs and darkened the outlook for global demand. The Associated Press said the war’s effect on oil prices and trade uncertainty helped slow shipments. (apnews.com) China’s economy has leaned heavily on manufacturing and exports while its property sector remains weak at home. A six-month low in export growth cuts into one of Beijing’s main support beams for growth in 2026. (cnbc.com) At the same time, a separate choke point is forming in the United States export-control system for high-end chips used to train artificial intelligence models. The Bureau of Industry and Security is the Commerce Department office that reviews licenses for “dual-use” goods, meaning products with civilian and military uses. (gao.gov) The Government Accountability Office said in July 2025 that the Bureau of Industry and Security had not assessed its long-term workforce needs even as licensing work grew more complex and involved reviews by the Departments of Defense, Energy, and State. The bureau’s own mission statement says it is supposed to run that system effectively and efficiently. (gao.gov) (bis.gov) Reporting published on April 10 said the bureau has lost nearly one-fifth of its staff and that licensing delays have reduced processed applications by about 25%, creating a backlog for shipments including Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices chips. Those figures were attributed to Bloomberg’s review of agency and personnel records. (ttnews.com) (tomshardware.com) That leaves two different constraints hitting the same trade relationship at once: softer external demand for Chinese goods in March, and slower approvals for some of the most sensitive United States technology exports headed the other way. The next test is whether April trade data and licensing throughput show a one-month disruption or a longer bottleneck. (cnbc.com) (ttnews.com)