TransUnion Forecasts Loan Origination Growth

- The forecast breaks down origination growth by category, projecting an 11.2% increase for unsecured personal loans, a 4.0% rise for purchase mortgages, and a 4.2% increase for mortgage refinances, while auto loan originations are expected to decline by 1.5%. - This projected growth in lending occurs alongside a rise in consumer risk; consumer-level 60+ days past due delinquencies for mortgages saw their 15th consecutive quarterly year-over-year increase in Q4 2025, and unsecured personal loan delinquencies also rose. - The decline in auto loan originations follows a 2025 surge where consumers accelerated purchases to get ahead of anticipated tariffs and the expiration of certain EV tax credits. - Growth in unsecured personal loans and bank cards has been significantly driven by subprime and super-prime borrowers, indicating a hollowing out of mid-level risk tiers and creating new portfolio dynamics for lenders to manage. - Lenders are adopting more disciplined growth strategies by using advanced data analytics and AI-powered risk models to underwrite more efficiently and manage the shifting risk profiles, particularly as lending to below-prime segments increases. - The forecast is influenced by macroeconomic factors, including the expectation of easing 30-year mortgage rates, which would improve housing affordability and homeowner access to a collective $21.4 trillion in available home equity. - As a subtle sign of changing consumer credit health, the median VantageScore experienced a year-over-year decline in Q4 2025 for the first time in several years, dropping 2 points to 711. - The increasing distribution of credit through embedded finance channels is a key industry trend, shifting origination economics toward platforms that own the customer relationship and can leverage unique data for decisioning, a critical architectural consideration for modern lending systems.