Iran Regime Unlikely to Fall
Despite military pressure, Iran's regime is likely to survive current challenges according to Iranian-American political scientist Kian Tajbakhsh. The Islamic Republic has cut Wi-Fi nationwide to prevent coordinated protests, and the regime is "so entrenched and fanatical" that external pressure won't prompt immediate political transformation. The "balance of anger against the regime versus fear of the regime" currently favors the status quo.
The current wave of protests, which began on December 28, 2025, was initially triggered by a sharp collapse of Iran's currency and rapidly evolved into nationwide demonstrations calling for the end of the Islamic Republic. These protests have spread to all 31 of Iran's provinces, including areas traditionally considered loyal to the state. The government has responded with a severe crackdown, leading to thousands of estimated deaths and the longest internet shutdown in the country's history. Iran is facing its most severe and prolonged economic crisis in modern history, a key driver of the unrest. Inflation soared to over 48% in late 2025, and the national currency, the rial, has plummeted, at one point trading at 1,750,000 to one US dollar. This economic collapse is attributed to a combination of international sanctions, government mismanagement, and a systemic energy crisis, leading to widespread poverty and food shortages. The state's security apparatus is extensive and multi-layered, designed for both external defense and internal repression. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), with an estimated 190,000 personnel, operates in parallel to the regular army (Artesh) and controls the Basij, a large paramilitary volunteer force. This structure, which reports directly to the Supreme Leader, is designed to absorb shocks and ensure regime survival. The government has a history of using brutal force and internet blackouts to quell dissent, as seen in major protests in 2009 (the "Green Movement"), 2019, and 2022. The current internet shutdown, which began on January 8, 2026, is the most severe to date, targeting even domestic intranets and satellite systems like Starlink to prevent coordination and hide the scale of the crackdown from the world. Following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28, 2026, during a US-Israeli military operation, a temporary leadership council was formed. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has deep ties to the IRGC, has reportedly been chosen by the Assembly of Experts as the new Supreme Leader in a move seen as prioritizing control during the crisis. This marks the first dynastic succession since the 1979 revolution.
